”Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea” Stats, Form, and Betting Insights for Sure Prediction this Saturday

Nottingham Forest – Last 5 Matches & Season Summary

Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Games)

• Record: W 0 – D 1 – L 4 
• Goals scored in those 5 games: 1 
• Shots / attacking stats: Across those games they had about 60 shots, 22 on target 
• Possession: ~ 56 % average in those matches 
• Fouls and disciplinary: 61 fouls, 10 yellow cards in those 5 matches 

That’s a very poor run. They are struggling to score, losing most matches, and under pressure defensively.

Season Overview & Key Metrics

• In the 2025-26 Premier League so far, Forest have:
  • 5 goals scored in 7 matches (≈ 0.71 goals per game) 
  • 12 goals conceded in 7 matches (≈ 1.71 conceded per game) 
  • No clean sheets yet 
  • xG (expected goals): ~1.44 per match, xGA ~1.47 (so they concede about as many chances as expected) 
  • Over/Under & BTTS trends:
    – Over 2.5 goals matches: ~43 % of their games to date 
    – BTTS (both teams to score): ~43 % overall 
• At home vs away: Their home form is slightly better (scoring and conceding a bit less) but still weak.
• Defensive weakness: Conceding rate is high, and they have had difficulty shutting out opponents.
• Attacking dryness: Few goals scored, often low output.

Interpretation for Forest: They are in a poor run of form, particularly struggling offensively while leaking goals. At home, they might try to defend more compactly and hit via counterattacks or set-pieces.

---

Chelsea – Last 5 Matches & Season Summary

Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Games)

I could not find a full direct listing of exact last 5 results in one place, but combining multiple sources:

• Over their recent matches they have scored ~8–10 goals in 5 matches in league play. 
• In their last 10 (wider sample), their record is decent: W 5 – D 2 – L 3 with goal differential +4. 
• From StatMuse, in a 10-match sample: W6 D2 L2 with goal difference +4 
• In their last 20 Premier League matches: W11 D4 L5 

One detailed run (in StatMuse) shows matches such as:

Date	Opponent	Result	Goals for Chelsea	Shots, etc.
vs West Ham 5-1	W	5 goals	heavy attacking showing
vs Fulham 2-0	W	2 goals	solid defensive as well
vs Brentford 2-2	D	2 goals	struggled to close out
vs Manchester United 1-2	L	1 goal	narrow defeat
vs Liverpool 2-1	W	2 goals	recent win

So their recent form is mixed but with more positives than Forest.

Season Overview & Key Metrics

From FBref / stats sources:

• Chelsea’s 2025-26 Premier League record: W 3 – D 2 – L 2, 11 points 
• Goals scored so far: 13 goals in 7 matches (≈ 1.86 per game) 
• Goals conceded: 9 in 7 matches (≈ 1.29 per game)
• xG metrics: Chelsea have generated more expected goals than conceded (xG ~10.9 vs xGA ~9.7) in the matches recorded.
• At home vs away: Their away defense is a bit worse (they concede more on the road) based on average conceded away stat ~1.67.
• Over/Under & BTTS trends (Chelsea side) from FootyStats:
  • They concede ~1.29 goals per match on average 
  • Clean sheets ~29 % of matches 
  • Conceded >1.5 goals in ~43 % of matches overall 
  • In away matches, their conceded over 1.5 is higher (67 %) 

Interpretation for Chelsea: They are more balanced. They score regularly, concede somewhat, with better attacking output than Forest. Their away defense has vulnerabilities.

---

Match Prediction Factors & “Goal Lines” / Over-Under Projections

Putting both sides together:

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Forest are clearly in bad form, especially at scoring. Their defense is leaky, so likely to concede.
• Chelsea have enough attacking firepower to exploit weaknesses, especially away.
• Chelsea will be missing Cole Palmer due to injury (he’s out for ~6 weeks) 
• Also, Chelsea’s coach Maresca is banned for one match (touchline) for misconduct. 
• Forest’s attacking (goal scoring) is weak, so they’ll struggle to net goals unless special circumstances happen.

Over/Under / “Goal Lines” Projections

Given the stats:

• Forest average match goals (both teams) ~2.43 total goals per match (per FootyStats) 
• Chelsea average goals per match ~1.86 scored + ~1.29 conceded = ~3.15 total per match (on average) 
• But in away matches, Chelsea tend to concede more (so match totals might go up) 
• Combined with Forest’s defensive frailties, match could see 2.5 to 3.5 goals in total.

So I would lean:

• Over 2.5 goals is a reasonable line to expect.
• Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Forest do score in ~43 % of matches and Chelsea concede fairly often. But Forest’s struggles may reduce BTTS chances; still, it’s plausible.

Likely Scorelines (educated guesses)

• Chelsea win 2-0
• Or Chelsea win 2-1
• Possibly 3-1 Chelsea if Forest are open
• Less likely: Forest shock 1-0, but that seems improbable given form

Given Chelsea’s relative strength and Forest’s poor run, Chelsea win is the highest probability outcome.

---

If you like, I can compute probabilities (using Poisson or xG models) or simulate odds, and give you a betting prediction (win/draw/loss, over/under). Do you want me to do that?