Nottingham Forest – Last 5 Matches & Season Summary
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Games)
- Record: W 0 – D 1 – L 4
- Goals scored in those 5 games: 1
- Shots / attacking stats: Across those games they had about 60 shots, 22 on target
- Possession: ~ 56 % average in those matches
- Fouls and disciplinary: 61 fouls, 10 yellow cards in those 5 matches
That’s a very poor run. They are struggling to score, losing most matches, and under pressure defensively.
Season Overview & Key Metrics
- In the 2025-26 Premier League so far, Forest have:
• 5 goals scored in 7 matches (≈ 0.71 goals per game)
• 12 goals conceded in 7 matches (≈ 1.71 conceded per game)
• No clean sheets yet
• xG (expected goals): ~1.44 per match, xGA ~1.47 (so they concede about as many chances as expected)
• Over/Under & BTTS trends:
– Over 2.5 goals matches: ~43 % of their games to date
– BTTS (both teams to score): ~43 % overall - At home vs away: Their home form is slightly better (scoring and conceding a bit less) but still weak.
- Defensive weakness: Conceding rate is high, and they have had difficulty shutting out opponents.
- Attacking dryness: Few goals scored, often low output.
Interpretation for Forest: They are in a poor run of form, particularly struggling offensively while leaking goals. At home, they might try to defend more compactly and hit via counterattacks or set-pieces.
Chelsea – Last 5 Matches & Season Summary
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Games)
I could not find a full direct listing of exact last 5 results in one place, but combining multiple sources:
- Over their recent matches they have scored ~8–10 goals in 5 matches in league play.
- In their last 10 (wider sample), their record is decent: W 5 – D 2 – L 3 with goal differential +4.
- From StatMuse, in a 10-match sample: W6 D2 L2 with goal difference +4
- In their last 20 Premier League matches: W11 D4 L5
One detailed run (in StatMuse) shows matches such as:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Goals for Chelsea | Shots, etc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs West Ham 5-1 | W | 5 goals | heavy attacking showing | |
| vs Fulham 2-0 | W | 2 goals | solid defensive as well | |
| vs Brentford 2-2 | D | 2 goals | struggled to close out | |
| vs Manchester United 1-2 | L | 1 goal | narrow defeat | |
| vs Liverpool 2-1 | W | 2 goals | recent win |
So their recent form is mixed but with more positives than Forest.
Season Overview & Key Metrics
From FBref / stats sources:
- Chelsea’s 2025-26 Premier League record: W 3 – D 2 – L 2, 11 points
- Goals scored so far: 13 goals in 7 matches (≈ 1.86 per game)
- Goals conceded: 9 in 7 matches (≈ 1.29 per game)
- xG metrics: Chelsea have generated more expected goals than conceded (xG ~10.9 vs xGA ~9.7) in the matches recorded.
- At home vs away: Their away defense is a bit worse (they concede more on the road) based on average conceded away stat ~1.67.
- Over/Under & BTTS trends (Chelsea side) from FootyStats:
• They concede ~1.29 goals per match on average
• Clean sheets ~29 % of matches
• Conceded >1.5 goals in ~43 % of matches overall
• In away matches, their conceded over 1.5 is higher (67 %)
Interpretation for Chelsea: They are more balanced. They score regularly, concede somewhat, with better attacking output than Forest. Their away defense has vulnerabilities.
Match Prediction Factors & “Goal Lines” / Over-Under Projections
Putting both sides together:
Strengths & Weaknesses
- Forest are clearly in bad form, especially at scoring. Their defense is leaky, so likely to concede.
- Chelsea have enough attacking firepower to exploit weaknesses, especially away.
- Chelsea will be missing Cole Palmer due to injury (he’s out for ~6 weeks)
- Also, Chelsea’s coach Maresca is banned for one match (touchline) for misconduct.
- Forest’s attacking (goal scoring) is weak, so they’ll struggle to net goals unless special circumstances happen.
Over/Under / “Goal Lines” Projections
Given the stats:
- Forest average match goals (both teams) ~2.43 total goals per match (per FootyStats)
- Chelsea average goals per match ~1.86 scored + ~1.29 conceded = ~3.15 total per match (on average)
- But in away matches, Chelsea tend to concede more (so match totals might go up)
- Combined with Forest’s defensive frailties, match could see 2.5 to 3.5 goals in total.
So I would lean:
- Over 2.5 goals is a reasonable line to expect.
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Forest do score in ~43 % of matches and Chelsea concede fairly often. But Forest’s struggles may reduce BTTS chances; still, it’s plausible.
Likely Scorelines (educated guesses)
- Chelsea win 2-0
- Or Chelsea win 2-1
- Possibly 3-1 Chelsea if Forest are open
- Less likely: Forest shock 1-0, but that seems improbable given form
Given Chelsea’s relative strength and Forest’s poor run, Chelsea win is the highest probability outcome.
If you like, I can compute probabilities (using Poisson or xG models) or simulate odds, and give you a betting prediction (win/draw/loss, over/under). Do you want me to do that?