What is Over/Under (inc. Overtime) in Basketball Betting?
- Over/Under (also called Totals) is a bet on the combined number of points scored by both teams in a game.
- The sportsbook sets a line (e.g., 210.5 points).
- You bet whether the total score will be Over or Under that line.
- Since it’s (inc. Overtime) → any extra periods are included in the final score.
- This is crucial in basketball, where overtime is common and often adds 10–30+ points.
Example with a Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Suppose the Lakers vs Golden State Warriors game has an Over/Under line of 228.5 points (inc. OT).
- Scenario 1: Bet on Over (228.5)
- Final score after OT: Lakers 118 – Warriors 115 → Total = 233 points.
- Over bet wins.
- Scenario 2: Bet on Under (228.5)
- Final score after regulation: Lakers 110 – Warriors 108 = 218 points.
- BUT game goes to overtime → Final score after OT: Lakers 118 – Warriors 115 = 233 points.
- Under bet loses, even though regulation would have been Under.
This shows why including overtime heavily favors Over bettors.
Factors to Analyse Before Betting Over/Under
- Team Pace (Possessions per Game)
- Fast-paced teams (e.g., Warriors, Pacers) = higher scoring.
- Slower teams (e.g., Heat, Nuggets) = lower totals.
- Offensive & Defensive Efficiency
- Points per 100 possessions → measures scoring strength & defensive ability.
- Recent Form & Matchups
- Injuries to key scorers/defenders.
- Rivalries often mean tighter defenses → lower scoring.
- Venue & Travel
- Some arenas (e.g., Denver Nuggets altitude) impact fatigue & scoring.
- Back-to-back games → players more tired → often lower scoring.
- Head-to-Head History
- Example: Lakers vs Warriors often produce high-scoring games due to fast pace and 3-point shooting.
Betting Tips for Over/Under (inc. Overtime)
- Be careful betting the Under → Overtime ruins many Under bets. If you think it will be close, lean toward Over.
- Look at pace stats → Games between two fast teams are prime Over opportunities.
- Bet Overs when key defenders are injured (e.g., if Lakers’ Anthony Davis is out, rim protection drops → higher totals).
- Bet Unders when star scorers are missing (e.g., no LeBron James or Steph Curry → fewer points).
- Live Betting Tip → If the first half is low-scoring but both teams are shooting badly (not because of defense), a 2nd half Over can have value.
- Avoid blind betting → Don’t assume big-name teams = high scores. Analyze the context of the matchup.
Summary:
Over/Under (inc. Overtime) in basketball is a bet on the total points scored, with OT included. Because OT usually pushes totals upward, Over bettors often benefit. Smart bettors study pace, efficiency, matchups, and injuries before picking Over or Under.
Would you like me to also create a step-by-step strategy guide on how to consistently find value in Over/Under basketball betting (like a checklist to follow before placing a bet)?