⚽ Under 4.5 | Home Team Total Bookings – Explained

Under 4.5 Home Team Total Bookings means you are betting that the home team will receive fewer than 5 booking points in the match.

Booking Points System

Bookmakers typically use this point system:

So Under 4.5 means the home team must finish with:

0,1, 2, 3, or 4 booking points.

If they reach 5 points or more, your bet loses.

Detailed Example Using a Team

Let’s use Manchester City (Home) as the example team.

Manchester City are known for:

• High possession
• Controlled, tactical play
• Low booking rate in most matches

So they are a good model for this type of market.

Match Scenario Examples

Example 1: Bet Wins

Manchester City vs Brentford
Final bookings for Man City:

• Rodri – Yellow (1 point)
• Kyle Walker – None
• Stones – None

Total: 1 booking point → WIN

Because 1 is under 4.5.

Example 2: Bet Wins

Man City vs Crystal Palace

• Foden – Yellow (1 point)
• Ake – Yellow (1 point)
• Haaland – Yellow (1 point)

Total: 3 points → WIN

Still below 5.

Example 3: Bet Loses

Man City vs Liverpool

• Rodri – Yellow (1 point)
• Walker – Yellow (1 point)
• Dias – Red (2 points)
• Bernardo – Yellow (1 point)

Total: 5 booking points → LOSS

5 or more = bet loses.

Example 4: Rare Losing Scenario

Man City vs Tottenham

• Ake – Yellow (1)
• Stones – Yellow (1)
• Kovacic – Yellow (1)
• Walker – Yellow (1)
• Dias – Yellow (1)

Total: 5 points → LOSS

Even without red cards, 5 yellows lose the bet.

When to Bet Under 4.5 Home Team Bookings

This market is ideal when:

Home team is disciplined

Teams like:

• Man City
• Real Madrid
• Barcelona
• PSG
• Ajax
• Bayer Leverkusen

Typically receive few cards, especially at home.

Home team will dominate possession

Teams with over 60% possession usually commit fewer fouls.

Match is expected to be one-sided

If the home team is much stronger, they defend less → fewer fouls.

Referee has a low-card average

Referees have different styles – some give 6–7 cards per game, others 2–3.

This market works better with lenient referees.

When to Avoid This Bet

Avoid Under 4.5 Home Bookings when:

Home team plays a derby or rivalry match

Derbies are intense = more fouls.

Examples:

• Real Madrid vs Barcelona
• Inter vs AC Milan
• Arsenal vs Tottenham

Home team uses a high-press, aggressive style

Teams like:

• Leeds (under Bielsa era)
• Atletico Madrid
• Marseille

These sides commit more fouls.

Home defence is weak or injury-hit

They chase the ball → more fouls → more bookings.

Strategic Betting Tips

Tip 1: Check the referee stats

If referee averages 3–4 cards per match, Under 4.5 is safer.

Tip 2: Look at home team’s foul-to-card ratio

Some teams commit many fouls but get few cards because they are “trusted” by referees.

Man City is a perfect example.

Tip 3: Check weather & match conditions

Rain → slippery → more fouls → more cards.

Tip 4: Avoid knockout games

Cup matches, Champions League knockouts = higher tension.

Tip 5: Look at opponent’s playing style

Teams that dribble a lot cause more fouls.
Examples:

• Wolves (Adama Traore era)
• Napoli
• Brighton

These teams attract fouls, so the home team may get more bookings.

Quick Summary