What Does “Over 4.5 Home Team Total Bookings” Mean?

“Over 4.5 | Home Team Total Bookings” is a football betting market where:

You bet that the home team will receive at least 5 booking points during the match.

Booking Points System

Most bookmakers use booking points:

• Yellow card = 10 points
• Red card = 25 points
• 2 yellow cards leading to a red = 35 points total

Only bookings given to home team players count.

How the Bet Wins or Loses

You WIN if the home team gets 5 or more booking points

This usually means:

• At least one yellow card (10 pts)
• Or any combination of bookings that reaches 5+ points (but typically it’s at least 1 yellow card)

But since a yellow is already 10 points, practically:

Your bet wins if:

• Home team gets 1 yellow card or more
  (So Over 4.5 is a very low line.)

Your bet loses if:

• Home team finishes the match with 0 yellow cards and 0 reds.

Example Using a Specific Team

Let’s use Chelsea as the home team at Stamford Bridge.

Example Match

Chelsea (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Market: Over 4.5 Home Team Total Bookings

Scenario 1 — Bet Wins

• Chelsea receive:
  • 1 yellow card (10 pts)

Total = 10 booking points
Your bet wins (over 4.5)

Scenario 2 — Bet Wins Easily

• Chelsea receive:
  • 2 yellow cards (20 pts)
  • 1 red card (25 pts)

Total = 45 points
Bet wins

Scenario 3 — Bet Loses

• Chelsea receive 0 cards in the match
  Total = 0 points
  Bet loses

Realistic Match Examples

Example 1: Derby Match (High Intensity)

Chelsea vs Arsenal

• Chelsea get 3 yellow cards (30 pts)
   Bet wins comfortably

Example 2: Low-Intensity Game

Chelsea vs Brentford

• Chelsea get no cards
  Bet loses

Example 3: Tough Referee

Referee known for 5+ bookings per match:

• Chelsea get 1 yellow early
  Bet wins

When to Bet Over 4.5 Home Team Bookings

This line is extremely low, so it’s used for:

Teams that are aggressive or foul often

Examples:

• Chelsea
• Atlético Madrid
• Everton
• Juventus

Home teams under pressure

If the away team is stronger, the home team fouls more.

Derby matches

• Chelsea vs Arsenal
• Man United vs Liverpool
• Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Referees with high booking averages

A referee giving >4.0 cards per match increases the chance of 1 home card.

When to Avoid This Bet

When the home team is:

• Extremely disciplined
• Playing a low-tempo match
• Facing weak opponents that don’t attack much
• In leagues with low card averages (e.g., Japan J-League, MLS)

Betting Tips for Over 4.5 Home Team Bookings

1. Check Head-to-Head History

If the home team usually gets booked against this opponent -> higher value.

2. Study the Referee

A referee with:

• High foul count
• High yellow rate
  …makes this bet strong.

3. Look at Team Motivation

Home team trying to defend a lead = more tactical fouls.

4. Watch Tactical Style

Teams with:

• High defensive line
• Aggressive pressing
• Fast counterattacking opponents
  …usually give away fouls → more bookings.

5. Consider Match Importance

Cup finals, derbies, or relegation battles = more pressure → more cards.

Quick Summary