Goal Number 1 – Penalty

In football sports betting, explained with a team, in details, with examples + betting tips

What “Goal Number 1 – Penalty” Means

This betting market simply means:

You are predicting that the first goal of the match (Goal Number 1) will be scored from a penalty kick.

A penalty must be awarded by the referee and scored directly for this bet to win.

If the penalty is missed or saved, the bet loses, because the first goal must be scored from a penalty, not just awarded.

Example With a Team (Using Manchester City)

Let’s say you are betting on the match:

Manchester City vs Brentford

You select:

“Goal Number 1 – Penalty”

This means:

You don’t care which team gets the penalty
You don’t care who scores it
You only care that the first goal of the match is scored from a penalty kick

Winning Scenario

Minute 12:
A Manchester City player is fouled in the box.
Referee gives a penalty.
Erling Haaland scores from the penalty spot.

First goal = penalty → BET WINS

Losing Scenario 1

Minute 10:
Brentford scores first from open play.

First goal was not a penalty → BET LOSES even if a penalty is scored later.

Losing Scenario 2

Manchester City gets a penalty in the 15th minute but Haaland misses.

Then later, Brentford scores in the 30th minute from open play.

First scored goal was not a penalty → BET LOSES

Key Things to Understand

Only the first goal matters
Must be a scored penalty
VAR decisions also count
It doesn’t matter which team

Why This Bet Is Rare but High Value

Penalties do not happen often, so bookmakers offer high odds, usually between:

4.00 – 10.00 depending on the teams and referee tendencies.

Teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester City often get many penalties because they attack heavily.

Smart Betting Tips for “Goal Number 1 – Penalty”

Choose Teams With High Penalty Frequency

Teams that attack a lot inside the box win more penalties.

Examples:

Manchester City
Liverpool
Barcelona
Real Madrid
PSG
Bayern Munich

These teams have quick attackers who force defenders into fouls.

Study Defenders That Commit Fouls

Teams with aggressive defenders or weak backlines often give away penalties.

For example:

Teams fighting relegation
Teams with slow centre-backs
Clubs with inexperienced defenders

Check the Referee

Some referees are known for awarding more penalties.

High-penalty referees increase your chance.

Watch Matches With Fast Wingers

Fast dribblers inside the box = more fouls.