What “1st Set – Race to 3 Games” Means
This is a tennis betting market where you bet on which player will win 3 games first in the 1st set, regardless of the final set score.
- It does not matter who wins the set.
- It does not matter if the other player later wins more games.
- The only thing that matters is reaching 3 games first.
How It Works (Simple Breakdown)
Let’s choose Carlos Alcaraz as the sample player.
Example odds:
- Alcaraz – Race to 3 games: 1.60
- Opponent – Race to 3 games: 2.20
You win your bet on Alcaraz if he wins the first three games he wins in the set faster than his opponent wins their three games.
Example Scenarios Using Alcaraz
Winning Example
1st set score (in order):
Alcaraz wins: 1–0
Alcaraz wins: 2–0
Opponent wins: 2–1
Alcaraz wins: 3–1
Alcaraz reaches 3 games first → BET WINS
Even if the final set ends:
- Alcaraz 3–6 (loses the set)
The bet still wins because he reached 3 games first.
Losing Example
1st set score (sequence):
Opponent wins: 0–1
Opponent wins: 0–2
Opponent wins: 0–3
Opponent reaches 3 games first → BET LOSES
Even if the set later becomes:
- Alcaraz wins final score 6–4
Your bet still loses because he did not reach 3 games first.
Tight Example Where Momentum Switches
Sequence:
Alcaraz wins: 1–0
Opponent wins: 1–1
Opponent wins: 1–2
Alcaraz wins: 2–2
Opponent wins: 2–3
Opponent reaches 3 first → BET LOSES
When This Betting Market Is Useful
Strong starters
Some players start sets very aggressively.
Example: Alcaraz often begins matches with high intensity, strong return games, and powerful hitting.
Slow-starters vs fast-starters
If a player is known to start slow, you avoid betting on them in this market.
Example:
- Stefanos Tsitsipas often needs a few games to warm up.
- Daniil Medvedev sometimes starts slow before adjusting tactics.
Betting Strategy & Tips
Look at serve strength
Players with big serves are more likely to hold early games.
- Alcaraz: very strong on serve → good for race bets
- Matteo Berrettini (example): huge serve → often takes early leads
Check head-to-head records
Some matchups show patterns:
- If Alcaraz repeatedly breaks a specific opponent early, the race-to-3 bet becomes stronger.
Court surface matters
- Clay courts = longer rallies, more breaks → more unpredictable
- Hard courts/grass = strong serve advantage → likely for favorites
Watch momentum
If betting live:
- If Alcaraz is pressuring every return game (15–30, 30–30), early break is possible.
- If the opponent is struggling to hold serve, the favorite can reach 3 games quickly.
Avoid betting when player just returned from injury
Starting slow is common.
Example Full Scenario for Clarity
Match: Alcaraz vs. Zverev (first set)
Games go:
- Alcaraz holds (1–0)
- Zverev holds (1–1)
- Alcaraz breaks (2–1)
- Alcaraz holds (3–1)
- Alcaraz wins the race-to-3 games
- Even if final set score: 3–6 or 6–7
- Your bet already settled as a win.
Final Betting Tips Summary
- Pick players with strong serves or aggressive early play.
- Study head-to-head records and early-set trends.
- Monitor conditions → fast courts favor favorites.
- Live bet when you see early momentum.
- Avoid players returning from injury or fatigue.