The “Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half” market is a special football bet where you predict how many goals will be scored in the second half, but one specific number of goals is excluded from the options.
This means your bet will win if the total goals scored in the second half are anything except the excluded number.
How It Works
In this market, the bookmaker sets an excluded number (for example, 1 goal).
You are betting that the second half will end with any total number of goals other than the excluded one.
For example:
- Market: Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half (Exclude 1)
- Your bet wins if there are 0, 2, 3, 4, or more goals scored in the second half.
- Your bet loses if exactly 1 goal is scored in the second half.
Example with a Real Team
Let’s use Manchester City vs Liverpool in the Premier League.
- Bet Type: Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half (Exclude 2)
- You are betting that the second half will not have exactly 2 goals.
Possible Second Half Outcomes:
| Second Half Score | Total 2nd Half Goals | Bet Result |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 0 goals | Win |
| 1–0 | 1 goal | Win |
| 2–0 | 2 goals | Lose |
| 2–1 | 3 goals | Win |
| 3–1 | 4 goals | Win |
You win if total goals ≠ 2
You lose if total goals = 2
So, if Manchester City scores twice in the second half and Liverpool doesn’t score, you lose.
If City scores once or three times, you win.
Betting Tips for Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half
1. Study Team Second-Half Patterns
- Some teams score more in the second half (due to attacking tactics or fitness).
- Example: Liverpool often increases intensity after halftime — making 0 or 1 goal second halves less likely.
2. Avoid Betting on Low-Scoring Games
- Games between defensive teams (like Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad) are more likely to end with 1 or 2 second-half goals — risky for this market.
3. Use Match Stats and Recent Form
- Check the team’s last 5 matches:
- Average second-half goals
- Late-game goal frequency
- Substitutions that affect attacking play
4. Live Betting Advantage
- If the first half ends 0–0, and both teams are attacking heavily, betting on “Exclude 0” for the second half could be profitable — as at least 1 goal is expected.
5. Consider Motivation and Match Context
- In cup ties or decisive league games, teams often push for goals late.
- In dead rubber matches (where result doesn’t matter), pace may drop — favoring fewer goals.
Example Betting Scenario
Fixture: Arsenal vs Tottenham (North London Derby)
- Arsenal tends to score late goals.
- Spurs’ defense weakens after 70 minutes.
You pick:
- Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half (Exclude 1)
- Odds: 1.85
Result:
- 1st Half: 0–0
- 2nd Half: Arsenal 2–1 Tottenham (3 goals in second half)
Your bet wins because the second half had 3 goals, not 1.
Final Takeaway
“Excluded Number of Goals – Second Half” is a smart bet for those who:
- Analyze goal trends and match tempo well.
- Want safer odds than exact goal betting.
- Prefer value in open games with multiple attacking chances.
Best strategy:
Use this market in matches where you expect either very few or many second-half goals, and avoid the middle-range number offered as the excluded option.