Set 1 Game 3 – Winner in Tennis Sports Betting Explained
Market name: Set 1 Game 3 – Winner
Type: Game Winner (In-Play / Pre-Match Specific Market)
Applies to: The third game in the first set of a tennis match.
This market allows you to bet on which player will win Game 3 of the first set — regardless of who wins the entire set or match.
How It Works
Each tennis set is made up of multiple games (e.g., Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, etc.).
In this market, you’re predicting who wins Game 3 in the first set.
- A “game” ends when one player wins four points (15–30–40–Game) and leads by at least two points.
- Serving is key — the player serving has a natural advantage.
Example Scenario
Let’s use Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner as an example.
Set 1 Progress So Far:
- Game 1: Alcaraz serves and wins (1–0)
- Game 2: Sinner serves and wins (1–1)
- Game 3: Now it’s Alcaraz to serve again.
Market: Set 1 – Game 3 Winner
| Option | Odds | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Alcaraz to win Game 3 | 1.30 | He’s serving — strong favorite to hold serve. |
| Sinner to win Game 3 | 3.50 | Needs to break Alcaraz’s serve — more difficult. |
If you bet on:
- Alcaraz: He must hold serve and win Game 3 (e.g., 40–15, 40–30, etc.).
- Sinner: He must break serve, winning the game against the serve.
So, if Alcaraz wins his service game, your Alcaraz bet wins. If Sinner breaks, your Sinner bet wins.
Player Detail Example
Let’s analyze with Novak Djokovic (Player A):
- Djokovic is known for strong service consistency and excellent baseline control.
- When he serves, he often wins 75–85% of his service games.
- In Game 3 (if he’s serving), betting on him to win is a statistically sound choice.
- However, if he’s returning serve, you might look for value betting on his return skill, especially against weaker servers.
Example:
“Djokovic to win Set 1 Game 3” (if he’s serving) — Low-risk bet.
“Djokovic to win Set 1 Game 3” (if returning against a weak server like Schwartzman) — Higher risk, higher reward.
Example Odds Snapshot
| Match | Player to Win Game 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Djokovic vs. Rublev | Djokovic | 1.28 |
| Djokovic vs. Rublev | Rublev | 3.75 |
Here, Djokovic is likely serving, explaining the lower odds.
Betting Tips
- Check Who Is Serving:
Always know who serves in Game 3 before placing a bet. The server usually wins 70–80% of games. - Use Live Stats:
Follow first serve percentage and break point conversion rate — they’re great indicators of who has momentum. - Player Strength & Surface:
- On grass or hard courts, servers dominate → favor the server.
- On clay, more breaks happen → higher upset potential for returners.
- Watch Early Games:
- If a player is struggling with serve early (e.g., double faults, long rallies), betting against them in Game 3 can yield value.
- Momentum Matters:
- If a player just got broken or lost a long deuce game, mental fatigue can influence the next game’s outcome.
- Use Small Stakes for Game Betting:
- These are micro-markets — quick results but higher variance.
Example Betting Strategy
Strategy: “Follow the Server” (Conservative)
- Bet on the server to win Game 3 of Set 1.
- Works best on hard/grass courts.
- Example: Bet $50 on Alcaraz (serving) to win Game 3 @ 1.30 → Return: $65.
Strategy: “Momentum Break” (Aggressive)
- Bet on the returner if the server struggled in Game 1.
- Example: Sinner saw 2 double faults in Game 1 → Bet on Alcaraz to break in Game 3 @ 3.50.
Summary Table
| Factor | Key Consideration |
|---|---|
| Market | Who wins Game 3 of Set 1 |
| Duration | Lasts just a few minutes |
| Key Skill | Serving consistency |
| Best Bet Type | Follow the server or exploit weak service games |
| Ideal Surface | Grass/Hard (for predictable outcomes) |