What Does “4th Goal” Mean in Football Sports Betting?
The “4th Goal” betting market refers to predicting which team will score the 4th goal in a football match — or if there won’t be a 4th goal at all.
You’re basically betting on which side will score the fourth goal in the order of total goals scored, not the final total.
Betting Options You’ll Usually See
Bookmakers offer three main options for this market:
- Home Team – 4th Goal
→ The home team will score the 4th goal of the match. - Away Team – 4th Goal
→ The away team will score the 4th goal of the match. - No 4th Goal
→ The match will end with fewer than 4 total goals (0–0, 1–1, 2–1, etc.).
Example: Manchester City vs Arsenal
Let’s use a real-world-style example:
Fixture: Manchester City (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Score progression:
- 1st goal – Manchester City (1–0)
- 2nd goal – Arsenal (1–1)
- 3rd goal – Manchester City (2–1)
- 4th goal – Arsenal (2–2)
If you bet Arsenal to score the 4th Goal, your bet wins.
If you bet Manchester City – 4th Goal, your bet loses.
If you bet No 4th Goal, your bet loses (since 4 goals were scored).
Another Example (Fewer Goals)
Fixture: Chelsea vs Liverpool
Final Score: Chelsea 2 – 1 Liverpool (only 3 goals total)
Bet “No 4th Goal” → Wins
Bet “Chelsea – 4th Goal” → Loses
Bet “Liverpool – 4th Goal” → Loses
Betting Tips for “4th Goal” Market
Here are some smart tips to improve your chances:
1. Analyze Team Scoring Patterns
- Look at whether a team tends to score early or late in matches.
- For example, Manchester City often keeps scoring throughout the game, making them a good pick for “4th Goal”.
- Defensive teams like Burnley may not reach 4 goals at all, so “No 4th Goal” could be wiser.
2. Use In-Play (Live) Betting
- This market shines during live betting.
- Watch how the game unfolds.
- If one team dominates after 3 goals, bet on them to score the 4th.
- If both teams slow down or play defensively after 3 goals, consider “No 4th Goal.”
3. Check Team Motivation
- In cup matches or when one side already leads comfortably (e.g., 3–0), the winning team may slow down, reducing chances of a 4th goal.
4. Monitor Substitutions and Fatigue
- When attacking players are subbed off or the match tempo drops, it’s a hint that no 4th goal is likely.
5. Use Historical Head-to-Head Data
- Some rivalries are known for goal fests (like Liverpool vs Man City), while others are usually tight (like Arsenal vs Chelsea).
Example Betting Scenario
- Match: Real Madrid vs Barcelona
- Current Score (Live): 2–1 at 60 minutes
- Real Madrid attacking strongly with Vinícius Jr. and Bellingham creating chances.
- You bet: Real Madrid – 4th Goal
- At 70’, Real Madrid scores → Your bet wins!
Summary Table
| Betting Option | When It Wins | Example Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Home Team – 4th Goal | Home team scores the 4th goal | 3–1, 2–2 if home team makes it 2–2 |
| Away Team – 4th Goal | Away team scores the 4th goal | 1–3, 2–2 if away team equalizes |
| No 4th Goal | Match ends with fewer than 4 total goals | 2–1, 1–1, 0–0 |
Final Thoughts
The “4th Goal” market is perfect for live bettors who like to read the flow of a match. It’s a mix of timing, analysis, and observation.
If you prefer low-risk bets, consider “No 4th Goal” in matches featuring defensive teams.
If you like action, pick attacking teams like Man City, Real Madrid, or PSG for 4th Goal – Yes markets.