What is Handicap Betting in Baseball?
Handicap betting (also called run line betting) is when a sportsbook gives one team a “head start” or a “deficit” to make the betting odds more balanced. This is particularly popular in baseball because most games have relatively low scores, so simply betting on who wins can be predictable.
- Extra innings included: This means the bet counts even if the game goes beyond 9 innings. Some sportsbooks offer bets without extra innings, which only counts results in the first 9 innings.
How it Works
In baseball, the standard run line is ±1.5 runs.
- Favorite team (-1.5): The team must win by 2 or more runs for the bet to win.
- Underdog team (+1.5): The team can lose by 1 run or win outright for the bet to win.
This is like giving the underdog a “head start” of 1.5 runs.
Example with a Realistic Scenario
Let’s take a game:
Teams: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Run line (incl. extra innings):
| Team | Handicap | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 | Yankees must win by 2+ runs (counting extra innings). |
| Red Sox | +1.5 | Red Sox can win outright or lose by 1 run; the bet still wins. |
Scenario 1:
- Final score: Yankees 5 – Red Sox 3
- Bet on Yankees -1.5 wins (they won by 2 runs).
- Bet on Red Sox +1.5 loses.
Scenario 2:
- Final score: Yankees 4 – Red Sox 5
- Bet on Red Sox +1.5 wins (they won outright).
- Bet on Yankees -1.5 loses.
Scenario 3 (extra innings matters):
- Final score after 9 innings: Yankees 3 – Red Sox 3
- Final score after extra innings: Yankees 6 – Red Sox 4
- Bet on Yankees -1.5 (incl. extra innings) wins because the final result after extra innings counts.
Why Bet on Handicap in Baseball?
- Better odds: Favorite teams often have very low odds if you bet straight win, e.g., Yankees at -200. Betting on the handicap (-1.5) might give better odds, like +140.
- Makes close games exciting: A 1-run difference game still gives action if you bet on the underdog +1.5.
- Extra innings flexibility: If you include extra innings, you can bet on teams likely to perform well in extended games.
Betting Tips
- Check starting pitchers: Starting pitchers have a huge effect on the score. A dominant pitcher on the favorite can justify betting -1.5.
- Analyze bullpen strength: If a game might go into extra innings, a strong bullpen can influence the handicap bet.
- Look at recent run trends: Teams with high scoring and weak defense are more likely to cover the run line.
- Home vs. Away: Some teams perform much better at home; this can affect the handicap outcome.
- Line shop: Compare different sportsbooks for the best handicap odds.
Key takeaway: Handicap betting in baseball makes low-scoring games more interesting and can increase potential profits if you study matchups carefully. Including extra innings ensures the bet accounts for the final game outcome, not just regulation 9 innings.
If you want, I can make a full table of realistic run line bets for a Yankees vs Red Sox game with odds and possible payouts, so you can see exactly how money changes depending on the handicap.