What “Player Shots on Goal (incl. overtime)” Means
- Definition: A “shot on goal” is any attempt a player makes toward the opponent’s goal that would have entered the net if not for the goalkeeper or a last-ditch block by a defender.
- This market counts only shots that are officially recorded as “on target” by the stats provider.
- Goals scored = automatically a shot on goal.
- Shots saved by the goalkeeper = shot on goal.
- Shots hitting the post/bar but not going in = NOT a shot on goal (unless deflected in).
- Incl. overtime: This includes any extra time periods beyond the 90 minutes (stoppage time and additional extra time in knockout matches). Penalty shootouts are not included unless stated.
How the Bet Works
You’re betting on how many shots on target a specific player will register in a match.
Common forms:
- Over/Under (e.g. Over 1.5 shots on goal by Player X)
- Exact number (e.g. Player X exactly 2 shots on goal)
- First player to have a shot on goal
Example with a Real Team/Player
Let’s use Liverpool vs. Manchester City as an example.
- Market: Mohamed Salah – Shots on Goal (incl. overtime)
- Bookmaker line:
- Over 1.5 shots on goal @ 1.80 odds
- Under 1.5 shots on goal @ 2.00 odds
Scenario:
- Salah scores one goal (1 shot on target)
- Another attempt saved by Ederson (2nd shot on target)
- Another attempt hits the post (NOT a shot on target)
Total shots on goal = 2.
If you bet Over 1.5 shots on goal, your bet wins.
If you bet Under 1.5, your bet loses.
Important Nuances
- Role and Position: Forwards (e.g. Haaland, Salah, Mbappé) get more shots on goal than midfielders or defenders.
- Opposition strength: Against weaker teams, a star striker may rack up 3–5 shots on goal easily. Against elite defences, it could be 1 or 0.
- Team tactics: High-possession, attacking teams create more chances. Counter-attacking teams might rely on one or two big chances.
- Playing time: Substitution or injury will reduce total attempts. Always check likely minutes played.
Betting Tips
| Tip | Why it Matters |
|---|---|
| Check average shots on target per match | Use stats from previous 5–10 games; e.g. Salah averages 2.3 shots on goal per 90 minutes. |
| Consider the opponent’s defensive record | Teams with low xGA (expected goals against) concede fewer shots on goal. |
| Monitor line-ups | If a player is benched, your bet may void or lose. |
| Look for player form & injuries | A striker in top form often exceeds lines. |
| Use Over/Under wisely | Many value bets appear on “Under” when bookmakers overestimate star players. |
| Incl. overtime advantage | In knockout games with potential extra time, players can get more chances, so “over” bets may gain value. |
Quick Value Example
- Match: Portugal vs. Czech Republic (Euro Knockout)
- Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
- Market: Over 2.5 shots on goal incl. overtime
- He averages 2.8 shots on goal per 90 in the tournament, Portugal heavy favourites.
- Extra time possible → more chances.
- Odds: 2.05 (value vs. stats).
Would you like me to also break down the difference between “shots” and “shots on goal”? (It’s a common confusion in betting markets.)