1. What is Over/Under in American Football?
Over/Under (O/U), also called totals, is a type of bet where you wager on the total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined.
- Over = You bet that the total points scored will be more than the sportsbook’s line.
- Under = You bet that the total points scored will be less than the sportsbook’s line.
Example:
- Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
- Over/Under line: 48.5 points
- If the final score is Chiefs 28 – Patriots 24, total points = 52 → Over wins
- If the final score is Chiefs 21 – Patriots 17, total points = 38 → Under wins
2. Including Overtime
Some sportsbooks include overtime points in totals; some don’t. Always check the rules.
- If a bet is “including overtime”, points scored in OT count toward your total.
- Example: Chiefs vs. Patriots ends 28-28 in regulation, and in overtime, Chiefs score a TD → final score 34-28, total = 62 → Over wins if O/U was 60.
3. How to Analyze Teams for Over/Under Betting
When analyzing teams for O/U bets, look at:
a. Offense
- Points per game (PPG)
- Big plays, red zone efficiency
- Example: Chiefs average 30 PPG, Patriots 25 PPG → 55 combined → likely Over 48.5
b. Defense
- Points allowed per game (PAPG)
- Example: If Patriots allow only 17 PPG, the total may stay under a high-scoring opponent
c. Pace of Play
- Teams that run fast-paced offenses tend to score more points.
d. Injuries
- Missing key QB or WR can reduce scoring → lean Under
e. Weather (for outdoor games)
- Rain, snow, or wind → often lowers scoring → lean Under
4. Example Betting Scenario
- Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
- O/U line: 51.5 points (including OT)
- Stats:
- Bills average 31 PPG, allow 21 PPG
- Dolphins average 28 PPG, allow 24 PPG
- Recent trend: Both teams had 3 games over 50 points in last 5 meetings
- Betting Analysis: High-scoring teams, fast-paced offenses → Over 51.5 likely
5. Betting Tips
- Check historical matchups: Some teams consistently produce high-scoring games against certain opponents.
- Consider injuries: Missing offensive stars usually favors Under.
- Follow team trends: Look at the last 5–10 games for scoring patterns.
- Weather matters: Outdoor NFL games in winter → often lean Under.
- Shop for lines: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different O/U totals → small edges matter.
- Use “including OT” strategically: If teams often go to overtime, it can push totals Over.
If you want, I can make a ready-to-use list of 10 American football games today with Over/Under predictions including OT, with examples and tips for each team. It would save you a lot of analysis time.
Do you want me to do that next?