What is Handicap (incl. Overtime) in Basketball?
Handicap betting (also called point spread) is when the bookmaker gives one team a virtual advantage (+ points) or disadvantage (– points) before the game starts.
- Favorite → given a negative handicap (must win by more than the handicap line).
- Underdog → given a positive handicap (can lose by less than the handicap line or win outright).
Since this market is “incl. overtime”, if the game goes into OT, those points count toward the final result.
Example with a Real Team
Let’s use the Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings as an example:
- Warriors (favorites) handicap: –6.5
- Kings (underdogs) handicap: +6.5
Possible Outcomes:
- Warriors win 115–107
- Margin = 8 points.
- Warriors (–6.5) win bet (because they covered the spread).
- Kings (+6.5) lose bet.
- Warriors win 110–106
- Margin = 4 points.
- Warriors (–6.5) lose bet.
- Kings (+6.5) win bet.
- Game tied 108–108 at FT → goes to overtime → Warriors win 120–115
- Final margin = 5 points (incl. OT).
- Warriors (–6.5) lose bet.
- Kings (+6.5) win bet.
As you see, overtime matters since the total margin can change.
How to Analyse Handicap Betting
When deciding whether to back a team on the handicap, look at:
- Team Strength & Form
- Is the favorite consistently winning by big margins?
- Example: Denver Nuggets often beat weaker teams by 10+ points.
- Pace of Play
- High-scoring, fast-paced teams (like the Indiana Pacers) create bigger gaps → good for handicap favorites.
- Defensive Strength
- Defensive teams (like Miami Heat) often play close, low-scoring games → better to back the underdog handicap.
- Head-to-Head History
- Some teams match up badly against others. Example: Kings often struggle against Warriors’ perimeter shooting.
- Home/Away Factor
- Home-court advantage in NBA is worth around +3 to +4 points on average.
Betting Tips for Handicap (incl. Overtime)
- Favorites cover spreads more at home – If a strong team is at home, backing them on a –5.5 to –9.5 handicap is often profitable.
- Look for close matchups – If two teams are similar in quality, backing the underdog with a +5.5 to +8.5 spread is smart.
- Overtime insurance – Because OT is included, underdogs with +handicap are safer. Example: backing +6.5 means even if the game goes to OT and they lose narrowly, you still win.
- Late betting edge – Check injury news (e.g., if a star like Luka Dončić or Giannis is out, the handicap line shifts heavily).
- Avoid very high handicaps (–12.5 or more) – NBA games often tighten late due to “garbage time” subs.
Example Bet Slip:
- Boston Celtics –7.5 vs. Chicago Bulls (incl. OT)
- Celtics are dominant at home and often win by double digits.
- If Celtics win 115–105, your bet wins.
Would you like me to also create a step-by-step strategy guide (like when to bet favorites on handicap vs when to back underdogs) so you can apply it across different NBA teams?