What is 1st Set – Total Games Betting?
This market allows you to bet on the number of games played in the first set only — regardless of who wins it.
Bookmakers usually offer it as:
- Over/Under X.5 games
- Sometimes exact total games in the 1st set.
Since tennis sets must be won by at least 6–4 or go to 7–5 or 7–6, totals often fall in the 9–13 range.
Example with a Player
Let’s use Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud at Roland Garros.
Example Bet:
- Market: 1st Set – Total Games Over 9.5
- Outcome 1 (Bet Wins):
- Djokovic wins 6–4 → 10 games
- Ruud wins 7–5 → 12 games
- Outcome 2 (Bet Loses):
- Djokovic wins 6–3 → 9 games
- Djokovic wins 6–2 → 8 games
Here, your bet is only concerned with how many games are played in that 1st set, not who wins.
Common Lines & Probabilities
- Over 8.5 games → Safer (needs at least 6–3).
- Over 9.5 games → Medium risk (needs 6–4 or longer).
- Over 10.5 games → Higher risk (requires 7–5 or 7–6).
- Under 8.5 games → Strong favourite expected to dominate (6–2 or easier).
Betting Tips
- Study player serve/return ability
- If both are strong servers (e.g., Isner vs. Opelka), overs are more likely.
- If one dominates return games (e.g., Djokovic vs. a weak server), unders are likelier.
- Surface matters
- Grass courts (faster, more aces) → higher chance of tie-breaks, so overs.
- Clay courts (slower, more breaks) → often shorter sets, so unders.
- Match dynamics
- In finals or high-pressure matches, players start cautiously → more games in 1st set.
- In early rounds with mismatches, favourites often crush → fewer games.
- Live betting edge
- If both players hold serve comfortably early, odds on overs drop — good timing to enter.
Quick Examples
- Wimbledon, 1st Round: John Isner vs. Kevin Anderson
Likely 7–6 or 7–5 → Over 10.5 games in 1st set is smart. - Roland Garros: Rafael Nadal vs. a Qualifier
Nadal often dominates 6–2 or 6–1 → Under 8.5 games in 1st set makes sense.
Would you like me to also create a probability table (with examples of different scores and whether Over/Under wins) for 1st set totals? That way you can instantly see which scores land on which line.