What Does “Home Sending Off – Yes/No” Mean?
This is a special betting market where you predict whether the home team will receive a red card during the match.
- Yes → You bet that the home team will have at least one player sent off (straight red or two yellows = red).
- No → You bet that the home team will finish the game without any red card.
Example with a Club Team
Let’s take Chelsea (Home) vs. Arsenal (Away) at Stamford Bridge:
- Market: Home Sending Off – Yes
- If Chelsea receive a red card (e.g., Reece James sent off in the 65th minute), your bet wins.
- It doesn’t matter if Arsenal also get a red — only the home team’s dismissal counts.
- Market: Home Sending Off – No
- If Chelsea finish the game with 11 players on the pitch, your bet wins.
- Even if Arsenal get a red, your bet is unaffected.
Key Factors to Consider Before Betting
- Team Discipline Record
- Some clubs are more aggressive and prone to bookings.
- Example: A team like Atlético Madrid (historically physical style) is more likely to see red than a possession team like Manchester City.
- Referee Profile
- Some referees are known for strict card distribution.
- Example: In the Premier League, referees like Mike Dean (retired) were famous for showing cards frequently.
- Match Context
- Derbies & high-stakes games (Liverpool vs. Everton, Roma vs. Lazio) often have higher chances of red cards.
- Relegation battles also get very physical.
- Playing Style
- Teams that press aggressively, commit tactical fouls, or defend deep under pressure are more likely to pick up cards.
Example Scenario Bet
- Match: Chelsea vs. Tottenham (at Stamford Bridge)
- Chelsea have aggressive defenders like Disasi and Caicedo (tackling midfielders).
- Referee is known for high card averages.
- Recent history: last 3 Chelsea–Spurs games had red cards.
Smart Bet: Home Sending Off – Yes (high odds, but strong reasoning).
Betting Tips
- Check Card Stats → Look at how many yellows/reds the home team has received in the last 5–10 games.
- Follow Referee Stats → Some refs average 4–6 yellow cards per game, increasing red card chances.
- Derby Matches = More Risk → Rivalries increase intensity → higher probability of a home sending off.
- Live Betting Edge → If the home team is under pressure, already on multiple yellows, or frustrated, betting “Yes” mid-game may have value.
- Safer Option = No → Most matches do not have a red card, so betting No is usually safer (but with lower odds).
Would you like me to also compare odds patterns (like average odds for “Yes” vs. “No” in this market), so you see the risk vs. reward side?