What “Excluded number of goals – Home” Means
This market focuses on how many goals the home team will score in a match, but with one specific goal number excluded.
- You are betting that the home team will score any number of goals EXCEPT the excluded number.
- If the home team finishes on that exact excluded number, your bet loses.
Example with a Team
Let’s say the match is:
Liverpool (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Market: Excluded number of goals – Home (Liverpool)
- Excluded: 2 goals
Outcomes:
- If Liverpool scores 0 goals → Bet Wins
- If Liverpool scores 1 goal → Bet Wins
- If Liverpool scores 2 goals → Bet Loses (because 2 is excluded)
- If Liverpool scores 3 or more goals → Bet Wins
Why This Market Exists
- It’s a variation of exact goals betting.
- It gives bettors more flexibility (since many other goal outcomes are still winning), but slightly lower odds compared to betting on “exact goals.”
Another Example
Barcelona (Home) vs Real Sociedad
Market: Excluded number of goals – Home = 0
- If Barcelona scores 0 goals → Lose (because 0 is excluded)
- If Barcelona scores 1, 2, 3+ goals → Win
This is useful if you strongly believe the home team will score at least once.
Betting Tips
- Check Home Scoring Form
- Teams like Man City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich rarely fail to score at home.
- Excluding 0 goals for them is usually a good option.
- Use Against Defensive Visitors
- If a strong away side defends well (like Inter Milan or Atlético Madrid), consider excluding 1 or 2 goals, since the home team may either be shut out or need 3+ to win.
- Combine with Team News
- If a star striker is injured, scoring fewer goals is likely → consider excluding higher numbers.
- Safer than Exact Goals
- Betting “Liverpool to score exactly 2 goals” is high-risk.
- Excluding 2 goals covers multiple scenarios, so it’s safer.
Summary:
“Excluded number of goals – Home” means you win if the home team scores any number of goals except the excluded one. It’s strategic when you are confident they’ll avoid a specific outcome, like not staying goalless or not stopping at 2 goals.
Would you like me to also explain how the odds for this market are usually set compared to “exact goals” or “over/under” markets?