Here’s a breakdown of how Chelsea vs Arsenal stack up ahead of their derby — based on recent form, last ~7 matches and head-to-head history — and which looks more likely to win.
Recent Form & Last Matches
Chelsea
- In their last 6 matches (across competitions) Chelsea have: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses according to one stat source.
- Their scoring rate in that period has been strong: ~ 2.50 goals per game.
- Recently they beat Burnley 2–0 (on 22 Nov 2025) — the win closed the gap to league leaders.
- Overall this season (2025/26), Chelsea — after 12 games — have 23 points, with a goal difference indicating 23 scored and 11 conceded.
In short: Chelsea are in decent form — strong attack, steady results, and momentum going into the derby.
Arsenal
- In their last 5 matches across competitions: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Their recent attack has been very potent: total 14 goals in those 5 matches (average ~ 2.8 goals per game).
- Recent wins include a 4–1 thrashing of Tottenham Hotspur, and a 2–0 win away at Burnley.
- In the league this season (after 12 games) Arsenal sit top with 29 points; their goal difference shows 24 scored, 6 conceded.
In short: Arsenal are on fire — consistent wins, high scoring, good defensive solidity (low goals conceded), and currently leading the table.
Head-to-Head / Derby History
- Overall in the rivalry, Arsenal historically lead: more wins than Chelsea.
- Recent years: Arsenal have been dominant. For instance, in the last several Premier League meetings leading up to 2025, Chelsea haven’t beaten Arsenal in a league match — Arsenal have been unbeaten in multiple recent derbies.
- Recent direct matches: 2023–2025 meetings include: a 1-1 draw in November 2024, and a 1-0 Arsenal win in March 2025.
- Derby matches tend to be open — there are often multiple goals scored and chances created — which tends to favor the side with better attack and consistency.
Which Team Looks More Favoured Right Now
Given the data: Arsenal appear far more likely to win the upcoming derby than Chelsea.
Why:
- Their overall form (wins, scoring, defense) is slightly better than Chelsea’s right now.
- The historical edge in this matchup gives Arsenal psychological advantage and consistency.
- Arsenal’s squad appears balanced — strong attack and defensive resilience — making them well-suited for a high-stakes derby where pressure is high.
Chelsea are not out of it — their recent good form means they could upset Arsenal, especially if they press high and capitalize on mistakes. But everything points to Arsenal being the favourite.