Home to Win in Penalties — Football Betting Explained
What This Market Means
“Home to Win in Penalties” means you are placing a bet that the home team will win the match during the penalty shootout, if the match reaches penalties.
Your bet ONLY wins if:
- The match ends in a draw after regular time (90 minutes) + extra time (30 minutes), and
- The home team wins the penalty shootout.
Your bet loses if:
- The match does not go to penalties (home or away wins earlier).
- The match goes to penalties, but the home team loses the shootout.
When Is This Market Used?
This market is commonly available in:
- Cup competitions like the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, CAF Champions League, Champions League knockouts, Europa League, Copa del Rey, etc.
- International tournaments (AFCON, World Cup knockout rounds).
Example Using a Team
Let’s use Real Madrid (Home) vs Liverpool (Away) in a knockout match.
Scenario A — You Win the Bet
- Full time (90 mins): Real Madrid 1–1 Liverpool
- Extra time: Real Madrid 2–2 Liverpool
Match goes to penalties - Penalty shootout: Real Madrid wins 5–4
Your bet “Home to Win in Penalties” wins.
Scenario B — You Lose the Bet
- Full time: Real Madrid 2–1 Liverpool
Match ends in regular time.
Your bet loses because no penalties were played.
Scenario C — You Lose the Bet
- Full time: 1–1
- Extra time: 1–1
Goes to penalties - Penalty shootout: Liverpool wins 4–3
Your bet loses because home team (Real Madrid) lost the shootout.
Match Flow Breakdown
Your bet depends on two conditions:
Condition 1: The match MUST end level after extra time.
If not, your bet dies immediately.
Condition 2: Home team MUST win the penalty shootout.
Only penalty outcome matters — not goals scored earlier.
Why People Place This Bet
- Higher odds than “Home to Qualify” or “Home to Win in Extra Time.”
- Good when a match is expected to be very tight.
- Useful when the home team has a strong goalkeeper or good penalty shooters.
Strategic Example
Barcelona (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away) — Copa del Rey
Many bettors expect:
- Tactical, tough match
- Low scoring
- Possibly decided by penalties
So instead of betting Barcelona to Qualify at lower odds, they bet:
Barcelona to Win in Penalties at high odds.
Betting Tips
Bet Only on Tight Matches
Look for fixtures where both teams are evenly matched:
- Cup semi-finals
- AFCON knockout matches
- Champions League last 16 or quarterfinals
Check the Home Team’s Penalty History
A team with:
- Confident penalty takers
- A strong goalkeeper (e.g., Courtois, Alisson, Ter Stegen)
is a good candidate.
Avoid Teams With Poor Shootout Records
Teams like PSG or Arsenal have historically weaker penalty records.
Consider Fan Pressure
Home crowd → boosts:
- Shooter confidence
- Keeper morale
Don’t Play This Bet in High-Scoring Matches
If both teams score many goals, the match is less likely to reach penalties.
Good for Underdog Home Teams
When home team is not strong enough to win in regular time but could survive to penalties.
Perfect Bet Example
Nigeria (Home) vs Cameroon (Away) – AFCON Quarterfinal
Prediction: Hard, low scoring match
Bet: Nigeria to Win in Penalties
If
- FT: 1–1
- ET: 1–1
- Penalties: Nigeria wins
Bet wins.