What is “Over 3.5 goals”?
- Definition: Betting on Over 3.5 goals means you are predicting that the total number of goals in a match will be 4 or more.
- Key point: If the match ends with 3 goals or fewer, the bet loses.
- Why 3.5? The “.5” ensures there’s no tie (push) — your bet either wins or loses.
Example:
- Team A vs Team B ends 2-2 → Total goals = 4 → Bet wins
- Team A vs Team B ends 3-1 → Total goals = 4 → Bet wins
- Team A vs Team B ends 2-1 → Total goals = 3 → Bet loses
How to choose a team for Over 3.5 bets
When looking for teams likely to hit Over 3.5 goals, consider:
a) High-scoring teams
- Teams with strong attacking records but weak defense often have high-goal games.
- Example: Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga. They score many goals but sometimes concede too.
b) Head-to-head (H2H) history
- Check previous matches between the two teams.
- If past matches often had 4+ goals, it’s a good indicator.
c) Recent form
- Look at last 5–10 matches.
- If both teams scored multiple goals recently, Over 3.5 is more likely.
d) Playing style
- Teams that play offensively and press high usually produce high-scoring matches.
Example with a team
Let’s use Liverpool in the Premier League:
- Scenario: Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Liverpool’s last 5 matches: 3-2, 4-1, 2-2, 5-0, 3-1
- Manchester United’s last 5 matches: 3-1, 2-3, 1-3, 4-2, 2-2
Observation:
- Both teams score frequently
- Matches often have 4+ goals
Bet: Over 3.5 goals
- Likely result: 4-2 → Bet wins
- Likely result: 2-2 → Bet loses (less likely given form)
Betting Tips for Over 3.5 Goals
- Pick matches with at least one very attacking team
- Teams with a history of scoring 2+ goals per match.
- Check defensive weakness
- Matches where both teams concede goals often produce 4+ goals.
- Consider league style
- Bundesliga, Eredivisie, and Ligue 1 often see high-scoring games
- Premier League can also produce 4+ goals but more inconsistent
- Avoid low-scoring teams
- Teams with strong defenses, like Atlético Madrid or Inter Milan, are risky.
- Check injuries and lineup
- Missing key attackers or defenders can influence total goals.
- Look for in-form goal-scorers
- If star strikers are scoring regularly, Over 3.5 is more likely.
Summary
- Over 3.5 = 4+ goals in a match.
- Ideal for high-scoring teams or fixtures with weak defenses.
- Analyze team form, head-to-head stats, playing style, and lineups.
- Riskier than Over 2.5, but payouts are usually higher.