What “Set 1 – Game 4 – 3rd Point” Means
This is a micro-betting market in tennis. Instead of betting on a whole match, you are betting on the specific outcome of a single point.
- Set 1 → We are in the first set of the match
- Game 4 → We are focusing on the 4th game of that set
- 3rd Point → You are betting on the player who will win the third point of Game 4
This means the bet is ONLY about one point — not the outcome of the whole game or set.
How it Works (Detailed Breakdown)
In tennis scoring, each game consists of a sequence of points:
- Point 1
- Point 2
- Point 3
- Point 4
… and so on until someone wins the game
So you are predicting:
Which player wins Point 3 in Game 4 of Set 1?
Example Scenario Using a Player
Let’s use Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev as the match.
Game 4 description:
- Alcaraz is serving in Game 4
- The score in the game so far is:
- 15–15 (after two points)
You are betting on:
Who wins the 3rd point?
Possible outcomes:
- Alcaraz wins the point
- Medvedev wins the point
Odds might look like:
- Alcaraz: 1.50
- Medvedev: 2.50
Why these odds?
Because Alcaraz is the server, and servers usually have the advantage.
Example Outcomes
If you bet on “Alcaraz to win the 3rd point”
- Alcaraz hits a strong serve
- Medvedev misses the return
- Alcaraz wins the point
- Your bet wins
If you bet on “Medvedev to win the 3rd point”
- Alcaraz double-faults
- Medvedev automatically gets the point
- Your bet wins
Bettor’s Perspective – What Influences Point Betting?
To make a smart bet on this micro-market, consider:
Who is serving?
- The server wins about 65–70% of points in ATP matches.
Pressure moments
Some players choke on big points, especially at:
- 30–30
- Break point
- Game point
Player style
- Big servers (Isner, Opelka, Kyrgios) → Strong on serve points
- Defensive returners (Medvedev, Djokovic) → Can pressure server
Surface
- Clay courts → more returns played
- Grass courts → more free points on serve
This can change probabilities for the 3rd point.
Example With Real Match Context
Let’s imagine:
Game 4 score in set 1 is:
15-30
Alcaraz is losing in the game.
If you bet on Alcaraz to win the 3rd point:
- Odds may be higher because he’s under pressure.
If you bet on Medvedev:
- Odds may be lower because he has the momentum.
Betting Tips for “Set 1 – Game 4 – 3rd Point”
Tip 1: Follow momentum
Players often ride short streaks.
If a player just hit two strong returns in a row, he may be “locked in”.
Tip 2: Watch for double fault patterns
Some players double-fault when stressed.
If the server is shaky, betting on the receiver can be smart.
Tip 3: Avoid blind betting on server
While the server is favoured, odds are often too low.
Look for exceptions:
- Fatigue
- Injury
- Long rally previous point
- Pressure situations
Tip 4: Live reading beats statistics
Micro-betting is fastest when watching the match LIVE.
You must react to:
- Body language
- Confidence
- Court speed
- Crowd noise
Tip 5: Bankroll discipline
Because point betting is fast:
- Bet small
- Avoid chasing losses
- Set limits before match starts
Summary
“Set 1 – Game 4 – 3rd Point” is a micro-bet on a single point.
Your winnings depend only on who wins that specific point.
Analyse serve strength, momentum, and pressure to improve your chances.