What Does “Set 1 – Game 4 – 4th Point” Mean in Tennis Betting?
This betting market focuses on one specific point in a match:
You are betting on the outcome of the 4th point in Game 4 of Set 1.
- It does not matter who wins the game or set.
- It does not matter if the score is tight or one-sided.
- You win the bet if you correctly predict which player wins that exact point.
Understanding the Context
Let’s assume a match between:
Player A: Novak Djokovic
Player B: Carlos Alcaraz
(You can replace these names with any players — the concept stays the same.)
How the Betting Works
In each game, points usually appear in sequence:
- 1st point
- 2nd point
- 3rd point
- 4th point (the point you’re betting on)
- etc.
Bookmakers list:
- Player A to win 4th point
- Player B to win 4th point
Odds depend on:
- Who is serving in Game 4
- Playing style
- Pressure situations
- Fatigue, momentum, confidence
Example Scenario
Assume:
- It’s Set 1
- Game 4
- Carlos Alcaraz is serving
Odds might look like:
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alcaraz wins 4th point | 1.35 |
| Djokovic wins 4th point | 3.00 |
Reason:
Alcaraz is a strong server.
Djokovic is great at returning, so odds are not extremely low.
Detailed Breakdown Using a Realistic Point Sequence
Let’s say Game 4 score so far:
- Point 1: Alcaraz wins → 15-0
- Point 2: Djokovic wins → 15-15
- Point 3: Alcaraz wins → 30-15
Now you are betting on Point 4.
If you predicted Alcaraz to win the 4th point and he serves an ace…
Your bet wins.
if Djokovic hits a brilliant return winner…
Your bet loses.
Why Bookmakers Offer This Market
This is one of the micro-betting markets.
Reasons bettors like it:
- Quick results
- High excitement
- Opportunity to take advantage of live momentum
But it’s risky because:
- A single mistake (double fault, unforced error) ruins the bet.
Factors That Influence the 4th Point Outcome
Here’s what smart bettors analyse:
Who is serving?
Servers usually win 65–75% of their points.
Pressure score
At 30-15, server is usually confident.
Momentum
If a player just made a big error, they might over-correct.
Playing style
- Djokovic = elite returner
- Alcaraz = explosive and unpredictable
Surface
- Grass → favors server
- Clay → helps returners
Example Betting Strategy
Scenario:
Djokovic broke Alcaraz’s serve in Game 2.
Alcaraz looks nervous in Game 4.
You observe:
- Alcaraz hit 2 double faults earlier.
- Djokovic returning aggressively.
The 4th point becomes a good opportunity to back Djokovic at higher odds.
Another Example (If Djokovic is Serving in Game 4)
Let’s say odds are:
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Djokovic wins 4th point | 1.22 |
| Alcaraz wins 4th point | 4.20 |
Reason:
- Djokovic serving strongly
- High confidence
Safe but low return to back Djokovic.
Value bet is on Alcaraz if you expect a shock return winner.
Betting Tips
Follow the live momentum
Watch the previous 2–3 points.
Tennis is psychological.
Identify nerves or pressure
If a player just double-faulted, don’t assume they’ll suddenly be perfect on the next point.
Strong returners are useful for upsets
Players like Djokovic, Medvedev, Zverev often steal points on return.
Avoid chasing losses
Micro-bets are addictive because they settle fast.
Stay disciplined.
Court surface matters
Clay = longer rallies → returners can win more points.
Check serve stats live
If a server is landing <50% of first serves, their odds are misleading.
Summary
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Set 1 – Game 4 – 4th Point | Bet on who wins the 4th point of Game 4 in the first set |
| What affects the outcome? | Serve, momentum, errors, pressure, surface |
| Recommended strategy | Follow live match flow, bet on return specialists for value |