What “Set 3 – Game X – Winner” Means in Tennis Betting
This betting market allows you to predict which player will win a specific game (for example, Game 4, Game 6, etc.) in the 3rd set of a tennis match.
It’s a micro-bet — meaning you’re betting on a very specific part of the match rather than the whole set or match outcome.
Example Scenario
Let’s take a realistic example:
Match: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
Market: Set 3 – Game 4 – Winner
You’ll see options like:
| Option | Odds |
|---|---|
| Djokovic to win Game 4 | 1.60 |
| Sinner to win Game 4 | 2.20 |
So here you are betting on who wins the 4th game in the third set.
How It Works
- If Djokovic wins Game 4 of the 3rd set, bets on “Djokovic to win Game 4” are successful.
- If Sinner wins that specific game, bets on “Sinner to win Game 4” are successful.
- The outcome of the rest of the set or match doesn’t matter — only that one game in the 3rd set.
Example in Action
Let’s imagine Set 3 score progression:
| Game | Server | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| Game 2 | Sinner | Sinner |
| Game 3 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| Game 4 | Sinner | Djokovic |
| Game 5 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
If you bet on “Djokovic to win Game 4,” your bet wins.
If you bet on “Sinner to win Game 4,” your bet loses.
Key Things to Consider Before Betting
- Who is Serving?
- The server usually has a higher chance of winning a game.
- If Djokovic is serving, he might be 1.20 favorite to win the game.
- If Sinner is serving, odds might be closer (or even reversed).
- Player Strengths:
- Djokovic is known for his return game — he can break serve more often.
- Big servers like Isner, Raonic, or Hurkacz are tough to break — they often win their service games.
- Match Context:
- If it’s a decisive 3rd set, nerves and fatigue can play a role.
- Players trailing may take more risks; favorites may play safer.
- Surface Type:
- On grass, service games are usually easier to hold.
- On clay, breaks are more common — making game-winner bets riskier but potentially more profitable.
Example Betting Strategy
Let’s say we’re betting on:
Set 3 – Game 5 – Winner
- Djokovic to serve → Odds: 1.25
- Sinner to serve → Odds: 1.70
You might bet on the server to win the game, especially if the player has been serving consistently.
Or, if you notice a player struggling with first serves or showing fatigue, you can back the returner for higher odds (value bet).
Betting Tips
- Track First-Serve Percentage:
A player with a strong first-serve % is more likely to hold serve. - Watch Momentum:
If a player just broke serve, they might have the upper hand mentally. - Live Betting Advantage:
In-play bets let you see body language, energy, and rhythm before betting. - Don’t Chase Every Game:
Only bet when odds and context clearly favor one side.
Summary
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Name | Set 3 – Game X – Winner |
| What You Bet On | Which player wins a specific game in the 3rd set |
| Key Factor | Who serves, momentum, and surface |
| Best Strategy | Back strong servers on their service games |
| Example | Djokovic to win Game 4 in Set 3 |