Set 1 Game 4 – Winner in Tennis Sports Betting
“Set 1 Game 4 – Winner” is a micro-bet in tennis that allows you to bet on which player will win the 4th game of the first set — not the whole set or match.
It’s one of the in-play betting markets, and odds constantly shift based on current performance, serve strength, and momentum.
How It Works (Example with Player A and Player B)
Let’s imagine a tennis match between:
- Player A: Novak Djokovic
- Player B: Carlos Alcaraz
Current score:
- Set 1 → Game 3 just finished
- Djokovic leads 2–1
Now Game 4 begins, and it’s Alcaraz’s serve.
The Set 1 Game 4 Winner market lets you bet on:
- Alcaraz to win Game 4, or
- Djokovic to win Game 4
Example Scenarios
Example 1: Betting on the Server (Alcaraz)
If you believe Alcaraz is strong on serve, your bet would be:
- Bet: Alcaraz to win Set 1 Game 4
- Odds: 1.35 (favourite because he’s serving)
If Alcaraz wins his service game (holds serve), your bet wins.
Example 2: Betting on the Returner (Djokovic)
If Djokovic has been applying pressure on return games, you might predict a break of serve:
- Bet: Djokovic to win Set 1 Game 4
- Odds: 3.20 (underdog as returner)
If Djokovic breaks Alcaraz’s serve, your bet wins.
This kind of bet can pay big if timed correctly, especially against a shaky server.
Betting Tips for Set 1 Game 4 Winner
- Check Who Is Serving
- The server usually has the advantage.
- If a player has a high first serve percentage (like 70%+), they’re more likely to hold serve.
- Analyze Early Momentum
- In early games, nerves and adjustments to surface conditions matter.
- A player who dominated Game 3 on return might carry that confidence into Game 4.
- Watch for Break-Back Chances
- If one player was broken early (e.g., trailing 1–2), they might fight hard to break back in Game 4.
- Surface Awareness
- On clay, breaks of serve are more common → betting on the returner can be smart.
- On grass or hard courts, servers usually dominate → safer to back the server.
- Use Live Stats
- Look at first serve %, double faults, and points won on 2nd serve — these stats indicate pressure points.
Practical Example
Match: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz (Roland Garros – Clay)
Current score: Djokovic 2–1 Alcaraz (Set 1)
Next Game (Game 4): Alcaraz to serve
| Player | Serve Points Won | Break Points Faced | Odds to Win Game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Djokovic | 85% | 0 | 3.10 |
| Alcaraz | 55% | 2 | 1.40 |
Interpretation:
Alcaraz’s serve is unstable — low first serve success and already faced break points.
A value bet would be:
Bet on Djokovic to win Game 4 at 3.10 odds (expecting a break of serve).
Key Betting Strategy
- If it’s the server’s game:
→ Bet only if their serve stats are strong (1st serve %, aces, few double faults). - If it’s the returner’s game:
→ Bet only if they have created break points or if the server’s previous game was shaky.
Summary Table
| Factor | Advantage | Betting Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Server | Usually dominant | Safer, lower odds bet |
| Returner | Riskier | Higher odds, bigger payout |
| Clay court | Breaks frequent | Better value on return bets |
| Grass court | Serve dominant | Safer to back server |
| Momentum | Key after tight games | Bet with form, not emotion |
Final Betting Tip
For Set 1 Game 4, look at the first few games for rhythm. If a player is struggling to hold serve early, betting on the opponent to win Game 4 can be a sharp move — especially at value odds above 2.5.