Here’s a breakdown of how Crystal Palace and Bournemouth have been performing recently (last ~5 matches / season trends), what the numbers suggest, and some pointers ahead of their match this Saturday.
Because perfect last-5 match stats for everything (goals, xG, shots, etc.) are not always publicly aggregated, I’ll combine what I found with season averages and trends. Use this as guidance, not absolute predictive certainty.
Crystal Palace — Recent & Season Performance
Recent form & trends
- Over the last 10 matches, Palace are recorded as W5 D4 L1 (i.e. 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) per StatMuse.
- According to their season stats (2025-26) at FBref, Palace have scored 9 goals in 7 games (≈ 1.29 per game) and conceded 5 goals (≈ 0.71 per game).
- On FootyStats, their goal scoring / conceding splits show:
• Goals scored per match (overall) ~1.29; at home ~1.0; away ~1.5
• Conceded per match ~0.71 overall; at home ~0.67; away ~0.75
• Over 1.5 goals in full match occurs ~71 % of their matches; Over 2.5 goals ~57 % overall - They keep a decent number of clean sheets: clean sheet in ~43 % of their games (3 out of 7) according to FootyStats breakdown.
- In terms of goal timing / halves: Palace tend to have more action in the second half than in the first, per the over/under split in FootyStats.
Strengths & Weaknesses inferred
Strengths:
- They are reasonably consistent in both scoring and defending (i.e. their goals conceded is modest).
- Their home vs away splits suggest that when playing away, they perform slightly better in attack (1.5 vs 1.0), so they can be dangerous even on the road.
- The frequency of Over 1.5 goals suggests many of their games see at least some scoring.
- The ability to hold clean sheets ~40 % of time gives them defensive credibility.
Weaknesses / cautions:
- Their “expected goals vs actual goals” (xG vs xGA) suggests some mismatch: in FBref they have xG lower than xGA (i.e. they may be underperforming in attack or overperforming in defense).
- They don’t often have very high goal outputs (over ~3 goals) — their over 2.5 goals occurrence is less common.
- If they concede first or fall behind, their game may open up in ways that raise risk.
Bournemouth — Recent & Season Performance
Recent form & trends
- In their last 5 matches, Bournemouth’s record is given as W3 D1 L1, with a goal differential of +1.
- For the season, according to StatMuse, Bournemouth concede on average ~1.14 goals per game in the Premier League.
- From FootyStats:
• Bournemouth scores ~1.57 goals per game on average (so they are relatively more attacking)
• In their scoring distribution: ~43 % of games they score exactly 2 goals; ~28 % exactly 1; ~14 % exactly 3 — meaning mid-to-high scoring outputs are not rare. - On “last 6 matches” per FcTables:
• Total goals in last 6: 8 (≈1.33 goals per game)
• Wins: 3, Draws: 2, Losses: 1 in those 6
Strengths & Weaknesses inferred
Strengths:
- They tend to be more attacking, with goal scoring above 1.5 per match on average.
- They have had decent recent form (3 wins in 5) — signs of momentum.
- Their distribution suggests they often score 2 goals in matches, which is a solid output.
Weaknesses / cautions:
- Defensively, conceding ~1.14 per match means they are vulnerable — if the opponent is good in attack, they can be punished.
- Their defensive consistency might be shaky, especially in tougher matches.
- In matches where they fall behind, the need to chase might expose them further.
Head-to-Head / Context Considerations & Match Dynamics
- Palace have relatively strong defensive metrics; Bournemouth are more aggressive offensively.
- If Bournemouth try to push forward, that could create spaces for Palace on counters or set pieces.
- Given Palace’s better defensive stability and the fact that their over/under numbers lean toward matches with some scoring but not extremely high, the match could see 2–3 goals.
- Bournemouth’s ability to score 2 goals is a risk factor for Palace, especially if Palace’s defense has an off day.
Prediction & Goal Line (Over/Under) Suggestion
Based on all of the above:
- Likely goal line range: Over 2.5 goals is possible, but given Palace’s moderate ceiling and Bournemouth’s defensive vulnerability, a safer line might be Over 2.0 (i.e. expecting at least 3 total goals) or 2.5 (some risk).
- Scoreline prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Bournemouth or 1-2 Bournemouth are plausible, but I lean 2-1 Palacebecause of their defensive edge and home context (if they are home).
- Another possibility is a 1-1 draw, especially if Bournemouth can stifle Palace’s attack.
If you like, I can run probability estimates (win/draw/loss, expected goals) using models and show you the best line to bet.