Here’s a detailed comparative breakdown of Burnley vs Leeds United based on their recent form, stats, goals trends, and what to look out for going into their match this Saturday. Use this as a guide — nothing is certain in football, but trends can help with educated predictions.
Burnley – Last ~5 Matches Performance
From sources:
- Burnley’s overall 2025/26 stats: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses; scored 7, conceded 15, goal difference –8.
- In their “last 5” Premier League matches, sources conflict slightly about number of wins vs draws, but one reliable stat says: “W0 D1 L4, goal differential –7”
- Another version (possibly more recent) says W1 D0 L4 and a differential of –4 in last 5 matches.
- Their season-wide numbers: goals for ≈7 (≈1.0 per game), goals conceded ≈15 (≈2.14 per game)
- Their away form is very weak: 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in away matches thus far.
- In one notable recent match: Burnley lost 5-1 to Manchester City, where two own goals (by a Burnley player) contributed heavily to the defeat.
Interpretation / Key Points for Burnley:
- Their defense is leaking goals: conceding over 2 per match on average is a worrying sign.
- Their attack is struggling to compensate. Scoring ~1 per match is modest when your defense is vulnerable.
- Their away matches so far have been disastrous; historically, weaker performance away from home.
- The internal conflict in “last 5 results” suggests some fluctuation, but the trend is clearly poor.
Leeds United – Last ~5 Matches Performance & Season Trends
From sources:
- Leeds’s scoring/conceding averages (2025/26 Premier League) — goals scored ≈1.0 per match, goals conceded ≈1.57 per match.
- Over/Under trends: Leeds have had Over 2.5 goals in 57% of their matches so far (4 of 7 matches)
- Under 2.5 goals matches: 43% (3/7)
- In terms of goal timing: Leeds score more in the first half (avg 0.71) than second half (0.29)
- Conceding more in second half: they concede ~0.86 in 2nd half vs ~0.71 in first half
- From FCTables: in the last 6 matches: 7 goals scored total → ~1.17 per match; 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses. Over 2.5 occurred in 4 of those 6 games.
- Also: Leeds have been involved in many matches with goals (i.e. both teams scoring) — BTTS (Both Teams To Score) is a noticeable pattern. FCTables notes “BTTS” in their last matches counting.
- From Premier League official site: Leeds concede an average 1.42 per match.
Interpretation / Key Points for Leeds:
- Leeds are not a low-scoring, ultra-defensive team — their matches often see multiple goals.
- Their defense is vulnerable — ~1.4 to 1.6 conceded per game is not solid.
- They tend to start games stronger (scoring early) but sometimes fade in the second half.
- They are more likely to be in games with goals from both sides (i.e. not many clean sheets).
Head-to-Head & Match Context Considerations
While I didn’t find a detailed head-to-head record in this search, combining the above:
- Burnley’s defensive frailties vs Leeds’ goal-inclined style suggests Leeds may have the upper hand in attack.
- But Leeds’ win rate is not overwhelmingly strong — they are inconsistent.
- Since Burnley have been particularly bad in away matches, Leeds (playing at home) would be expected to have the edge.
- Because Leeds concede frequently, Burnley could get a goal or two, especially if Leeds push forward.
Prediction & Goals / Lines Estimate
Given the data:
- Burnley: weak form, leaky defense, poor away record.
- Leeds: moderate attack, vulnerable defense, frequent “goals in match” pattern.
A plausible prediction:
- Result: Leeds United to win or draw (leaning Leeds win)
- Scoreline: something like 2-1, or 3-1 if Leeds dominate; or 2-2 if Burnley manage to fight back.
- Goals line (Over/Under): Over 2.5 goals is a good bet, considering both teams tend to concede and score.
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Likely yes.
If you like, I can also project a probability (e.g. 60% Leeds win, 25% draw, 15% Burnley win) and compare to bookmaker odds.