1. What Is Total (Over-Exact-Under) in Baseball?
This is a type of run line betting where you bet on the total number of runs scored in a game by both teams combined. You can bet three ways:
- Over – Total runs scored will be more than a given number.
- Under – Total runs scored will be less than a given number.
- Exact – Total runs scored will be exactly a given number.
Including extra innings means that the total runs calculation doesn’t stop at 9 innings; any runs scored in extra innings count toward your bet.
2. How It Works (Example with Teams)
Let’s say the New York Yankees are playing the Boston Red Sox, and the sportsbook sets the total runs at 9.5.
- If you bet Over 9.5, you are predicting that the two teams combined will score 10 or more runs, including extra innings if the game goes beyond 9.
- If you bet Under 9.5, you are predicting that the total runs will be 9 or fewer.
- If you bet Exact 10, you are predicting that the total combined runs scored will be exactly 10, including any extra innings.
Example 1: Over/Under
- Yankees 6 – Red Sox 5 → Total = 11 runs
- Over 9.5 → Win
- Under 9.5 → Lose
Example 2: Exact
- Yankees 5 – Red Sox 4 → Total = 9 runs
- Exact 9 → Win
- Over 9.5 → Lose
- Under 9.5 → Win
Extra Innings Impact
- Game tied 4-4 after 9 innings, goes to 11 innings. Final score: Yankees 6 – Red Sox 5 → Total 11
- Over 9.5 → Win
- Under 9.5 → Lose
- Exact 10 → Lose
Extra innings can change your bet outcome, which is why some sportsbooks specify “including extra innings” in the market.
3. Betting Tips
- Check team offense/defense stats
- Look at average runs scored per game and allowed per game.
- Yankees often have a strong batting lineup → more games hit Over.
- Pitcher matchups matter
- Starting pitchers heavily influence totals.
- If both pitchers have low ERA and WHIP → Under is more likely.
- If one team has a weak pitcher → Over could be profitable.
- Consider stadium effects
- Small ballparks (e.g., Yankee Stadium) can inflate totals.
- Large ballparks → might suppress runs → Under is safer.
- Extra innings trends
- Teams with strong bullpens may allow fewer runs in extra innings → affects Over/Under.
- Avoid Exact bets for beginners
- Exact total is high-risk, usually with high odds. Only try if you have strong stats backing a specific score prediction.
4. Quick Example Using Stats
Yankees vs Red Sox stats:
| Team | Avg Runs/Game | Last 5 Games Avg | Starting Pitcher ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 5.2 | 6 | 3.90 |
| Red Sox | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.10 |
Interpretation:
- Expected total: ~5.2 + 4.8 ≈ 10 runs
- Over 9.5 → Likely to hit
- Under 9.5 → Risky
- Exact 10 → Possible, but risky
If you want, I can make a step-by-step guide showing how to pick Over/Under bets for a real game using live stats to maximize your chances.