What “Draw | Winning Margin” Means in Football Betting
“Winning Margin” markets are about how many goals a team wins by.
A Draw | Winning Margin bet combines two outcomes:
- Draw – The match ends level (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.).
- Winning Margin – If a team wins, you’re predicting by exactly how many goals they’ll win.
Bookmakers often list this as something like:
- Draw
- Team A by 1 goal
- Team A by 2 goals
- Team A by 3+ goals
- Team B by 1 goal
- Team B by 2 goals
- Team B by 3+ goals
So, you’re not picking the match winner in a normal 1X2 style — you’re picking either a draw or a specific margin of victory.
Using a Real Team Example
Let’s take Arsenal vs Chelsea as a sample match.
The bookie might list:
| Outcome | Odds (example) |
|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 |
| Arsenal by 1 | 4.20 |
| Arsenal by 2 | 6.50 |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 12.00 |
| Chelsea by 1 | 5.00 |
| Chelsea by 2 | 10.00 |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 26.00 |
- If you pick Draw, you win if the match ends 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.
- If you pick Arsenal by 1, you only win if Arsenal win by exactly one goal (2-1, 1-0, 3-2).
- If you pick Arsenal by 2, you only win if Arsenal win by two clear goals (2-0, 3-1, 4-2).
- If you pick Chelsea by 1, you only win if Chelsea win by one goal.
It’s basically “exact winning margin” + “draw” all in one market.
Why Bettors Like This Market
- Higher odds than a straight 1X2 bet because you’re being very specific.
- Great when you expect a tight game or a dominant win.
- “Draw” option gives you a simpler out if you think the game will be even.
Betting Tips for “Draw | Winning Margin”
Check head-to-head history
- If Arsenal & Chelsea often draw, the “Draw” option might be value.
Look at team styles
- Defensive vs defensive → higher chance of a draw or a one-goal margin.
- Attack-minded vs weaker defence → higher chance of a 2+ goal margin.
Current form & injuries
- If a star striker is out, goals may be fewer → more likely a draw or a 1-goal margin.
Use stats like xG (expected goals)
- If xG difference between teams is small, “Draw” or “by 1 goal” can be value.
- If one team’s xG is way above, “by 2+ goals” might be value.
Live-betting advantage
- Sometimes, after 15–20 minutes of a tight game, the “draw” odds rise, giving you better value.
Quick Example Bets
- You think Chelsea are slightly better but Arsenal will be stubborn → bet Chelsea by 1 goal.
- You think Arsenal will dominate at home → bet Arsenal by 2 goals.
- You think both teams cancel each other out → bet Draw.
Summary Table
| Scenario | Best Pick |
|---|---|
| Tight, evenly matched game | Draw OR by 1 goal |
| Big mismatch in form | By 2+ goals |
| Historical draws | Draw |
Would you like me to make a quick odds-calculation cheat sheet (how to know which winning margin bet offers the best value using team stats)? That’s something a lot of bettors find useful.