What “Match Penalty Missed” Means
This market is about whether a penalty kick is missed during a match.
A penalty is considered “missed” if:
- The penalty taker shoots off target (wide or over the bar),
- The penalty is saved by the goalkeeper,
- It hits the post or bar and does not go in.
It does not count as “missed” if:
- The penalty is scored,
- It is retaken and then scored (only the final result counts).
So, in a “Match Penalty Missed” bet, you’re betting yes or no:
- Yes – At least one penalty will be missed in the match.
- No – No penalty will be missed in the match.
Example with a Team (Manchester United)
Let’s say you’re betting on:
Manchester United vs. Chelsea – Premier League.
The bookmaker offers:
- Yes (a penalty will be missed): 5.50 odds
- No (no penalty will be missed): 1.10 odds
You place ₦5,000 on “Yes” (a penalty will be missed).
During the match:
- 30th minute: Manchester United gets a penalty. Bruno Fernandes takes it but Kepa saves.
This counts as a missed penalty → your bet wins.
If all penalties are scored or there are no penalties at all → your bet loses.
Key Things to Check Before Betting
- Referee Profile: Some referees award more penalties (Michael Oliver in England, for example).
- Team Style: Teams like Liverpool, Manchester City, Real Madrid often get many penalties because of their attacking style.
- Penalty Takers’ Conversion Rate: Some players are very reliable (Harry Kane), others are more inconsistent (Marcus Rashford had a rough patch).
- Goalkeeper Strength at Penalties: Keepers like Emiliano Martínez or Kepa have above-average penalty save records.
Betting Tips
Here’s how to approach this market smartly:
| Tip | Explanation |
|---|---|
| 1. Research Penalty Frequency | Check stats of both teams for penalties won/conceded. Some matches see 0 penalties most of the time. |
| 2. Look at Player Form | If the likely taker has missed recently, odds of a miss go up. |
| 3. Consider Goalkeeper Ability | A top penalty-saving keeper boosts chance of a miss. |
| 4. Competition Stage | High-pressure games (Cup finals, knockout rounds) often lead to nerves and more misses. |
| 5. Live Betting | If a penalty is awarded and you know the taker, you can bet in-play on “penalty missed” at good odds. |
Example Betting Strategy
You’re watching Manchester United vs. Chelsea.
- You know United often win penalties and Chelsea’s goalkeeper is strong at saving them.
- The odds for “Penalty Missed” before kickoff are high (5.50).
- You stake ₦5,000.
- A penalty is awarded to United, the keeper saves → you win ₦27,500.
Alternatively, you can wait for in-play odds. Once a penalty is awarded, “Missed” odds might be around 3.00 depending on the taker.
Quick Summary Table
| Market | Bet | Win Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Match Penalty Missed – Yes | At least one penalty is missed | Penalty saved/off target/hits post |
| Match Penalty Missed – No | All penalties scored or no penalties awarded | No penalty miss |
Would you like me to also cover “Team Penalty Missed” (i.e. betting on a specific team to miss a penalty) separately? It’s slightly different from the overall match market.