What “Match Penalty Scored” Means
This market is about whether a penalty will be awarded and successfully scored in the entire match.
- YES / Penalty Scored – you’re betting that a penalty kick will be awarded and scored by any team during the match.
- NO / No Penalty Scored – you’re betting that either no penalty will be awarded, or if awarded, it will be missed or saved.
It’s match-wide, not for one specific team unless the bookmaker clearly specifies “Team X to score a penalty.”
Example with a Team
Let’s take Manchester City vs. Tottenham as an example:
- Bookmaker market:
- “Penalty Scored – Yes” @ 2.80
- “Penalty Scored – No” @ 1.45
If you select Yes:
- A penalty is awarded to either Manchester City or Tottenham.
- If the penalty is successfully converted (ball in net), your bet wins.
If you select No:
- There is no penalty at all OR a penalty is awarded but missed or saved.
- Your bet wins.
How This Differs from “Team to Score a Penalty”
- Match Penalty Scored (Yes) = Any team in the match.
- Team X to Score a Penalty = Specifically that team. Example: “Manchester City to Score a Penalty” @ 5.00 means City must both be awarded a penalty and score it for you to win.
Realistic Scenario
- Match: Chelsea vs. Liverpool
- Odds: “Penalty Scored” Yes @ 3.20
During the match:
- Liverpool gets a penalty at 60’.
- Salah scores.
Your bet wins.
Even if Chelsea later also gets a penalty and misses, you already won because a penalty was scored in the match.
But if Liverpool’s penalty is saved and Chelsea’s is missed:
Your bet loses (no penalty scored).
Factors That Influence Penalty-Scored Bets
- Referee tendencies – Some referees award more penalties (look up referee stats).
- Team style – Teams that attack in the box a lot (Manchester City, PSG, Barcelona) win more penalties.
- Defensive discipline – Teams with clumsy defenders or aggressive tackling concede more penalties.
- VAR – In leagues with VAR, penalty frequency has increased.
Betting Tips
Check Stats First
Look at each team’s penalty record. Example:
- Man City: Won 9 penalties last season, scored 8.
- Tottenham: Conceded 7 penalties last season.
This would make “Penalty Scored – Yes” more likely.
Look at Referee & League
Some leagues like Serie A (Italy) have more penalties than the Premier League. Some referees like Michael Oliver in England award more penalties than average.
Consider Player Quality
If a team’s main penalty taker is highly reliable (e.g., Haaland, Kane, Salah), the chance of “Penalty Scored” increases compared to teams with weaker takers.
In-Play Option
Sometimes odds are higher once the match starts. If a game is looking scrappy in the box, live-betting on “Penalty Scored” can be valuable.
Quick Summary Table
| Market Type | Condition to Win | Example (Chelsea vs Liverpool) |
|---|---|---|
| Match Penalty Scored – Yes | Any team scores a penalty in the match | Liverpool scores a penalty |
| Match Penalty Scored – No | No penalty scored (either none awarded or missed/saved) | Salah misses a penalty = if you picked No |
| Team X to Score a Penalty | Only that team scores a penalty | Only Chelsea scores a penalty for bet to win |
Would you like me to also explain “Team to Miss a Penalty” (it’s the opposite market) with examples? It often pairs well with this one.