What “Team to Miss a Penalty” Means
In football betting, “Team to Miss a Penalty” is a special market offered mostly in-play (during the match) or before games where penalties are likely (cup matches, high-stakes games, shootouts).
It simply means you’re betting on whether a specific team will fail to score from a penalty if they’re awarded one in regular time or extra time.
Key parts:
- A penalty must first be awarded to the team.
- The bet wins if the team fails to convert the penalty (misses or it’s saved, or it hits the bar/post).
- It loses if the team either scores the penalty or isn’t awarded one at all (bookies specify rules, some refund if no penalty awarded).
Example with a Team
Imagine a Premier League match: Manchester City vs Chelsea
Market: “Manchester City to Miss a Penalty”
- Odds: 6.00 (5/1)
- You bet ₦1,000.
Scenarios:
- City are awarded a penalty and score → Bet loses.
- City are awarded a penalty and miss / saved by GK / hit woodwork → Bet wins.
- City are not awarded any penalty → Usually the bet loses (unless the bookmaker has a “no penalty no bet” clause).
Another Example
Match: Real Madrid vs Barcelona
Market: “Barcelona to Miss a Penalty”
- Odds: 8.00 (7/1).
If Barcelona are given a penalty and Lewandowski’s shot is saved or off-target, your bet wins.
When This Bet Appears
- Cup finals & knockout rounds – More intense defending, higher chance of penalties.
- Teams with poor penalty takers – Lower conversion rate = higher odds.
- High-pressure games – Nerves lead to mistakes.
Betting Tips for “Team to Miss a Penalty”
Research the Team’s Penalty Record
Check the team’s last 10 penalties:
- Conversion rate of their takers.
- Do they have a reliable penalty taker (like Haaland) or a rotating system?
Example: Manchester United with Bruno Fernandes have high success rate; betting on them to miss is risky.
Look at the Opponent’s Goalkeeper
Some goalkeepers have strong penalty-saving records (e.g. Emiliano Martínez for Argentina, Alisson for Liverpool).
A great penalty-stopper raises the chance of a miss.
Consider Pressure Situations
- Finals, derbies, or relegation battles can affect composure.
- Young or new penalty takers under pressure = more chance to miss.
Bookmaker Rules
Always read terms:
- Some bookies refund if no penalty is awarded.
- Some count only in normal time (90 mins) and exclude shootouts.
Live Betting Edge
Sometimes after a foul, the referee reviews VAR and awards a penalty. In-play markets will instantly offer odds on “Miss/Score Penalty.” Quick reactions can grab value.
Practical Example with Odds
Game: Nigeria vs Egypt (AFCON)
Market:
- Nigeria to Miss a Penalty – 5.50
- Egypt to Miss a Penalty – 4.75
If Nigeria get a penalty and Osimhen misses or El Shenawy saves, your bet wins.
Quick Betting Strategy
- Identify teams with rotating or inconsistent penalty takers.
- Identify GKs with strong penalty-saving records.
- Use live betting after seeing who’s stepping up for the kick.
Would you like me to also cover “Player to Miss a Penalty” (individual player market) next? (It’s related but has slightly different odds and rules.)