What “1st Set – Winner” Means
- This market lets you bet on which player will win the first set of a tennis match.
- It doesn’t matter who wins the entire match — only the first set outcome counts.
Think of it as a “mini-match” inside the match.
Example with Players
Let’s use Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz as an example:
| Market | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Set Winner | 1.60 | 2.30 |
- If you bet on Djokovic to win the 1st set at odds 1.60, you’re predicting he wins that opening set.
- If Djokovic wins the 1st set 6-4, you win.
- If he loses the 1st set 4-6, you lose — even if he wins the match later.
- If you bet on Alcaraz to win the 1st set at 2.30 and he wins 7-6, your bet wins, regardless of what happens later.
Why Odds Differ
Bookmakers set odds based on:
- Players’ historical fast-start ability (how often they win opening sets)
- Surface type (clay, grass, hard court)
- Recent form, injuries, and travel fatigue
- Head-to-head 1st set records
Example: Djokovic often starts matches strongly; Alcaraz sometimes warms up slower. That’s why Djokovic is favorite for 1st set.
Key Factors to Consider Before Betting
| Factor | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Serving ability | A big server (like Isner) can dominate early games and take the first set quickly. |
| Return strength | A great returner (like Djokovic) can break early, increasing 1st set chances. |
| Surface & Conditions | Some players start slower on certain surfaces (e.g., clay) but faster on others (e.g., indoor hard courts). |
| Head-to-head 1st set stats | Look at how often Player A has won the 1st set vs Player B. |
| Fitness/Travel | Tired players may lose the first set before recovering later. |
Example of Stats Check
Suppose you research:
- Djokovic has won the 1st set in 12 of his last 15 matches on hard court.
- Alcaraz has lost the 1st set in 6 of his last 10 matches on hard court.
This strongly favors a bet on Djokovic to win the first set.
Betting Tips
Tip 1: Use Live Betting
If a favorite is broken early, their live odds to win the 1st set will rise. If you believe they’ll break back, it’s a value spot.
Tip 2: Check Player Patterns
Some players (like Medvedev) start slow and grow into matches. Others (like Kyrgios) start explosively but fade.
Tip 3: Surface Specific
Don’t assume a player’s 1st set form on clay equals their 1st set form on grass. Check surface-specific stats.
Tip 4: Tournament Stage
In finals, nerves may cause slow starts. In early rounds, stronger players may dominate the 1st set easily.
Tip 5: Combine With Other Markets
You can combine 1st set winner with over/under games in the set for better odds (e.g., Djokovic to win 1st set & over 9.5 games).
Quick Recap Example
- Match: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz
- Bet: Djokovic to win 1st set @ 1.60
- Outcome: Djokovic wins 6-4
Bet wins, even if Alcaraz wins the match later.
Would you like me to also explain “1st Set Correct Score” betting (predicting exact score like 6–4, 7–6) as a follow-up? (It’s the next level up from “1st Set Winner”).