What “How Goal Will Be Scored” Means in Football Betting
This market lets you bet on the method by which a goal will be scored in a match. Instead of predicting the scoreline or winner, you’re betting on how the ball goes into the net.
Common options offered by bookmakers include:
- Header – Goal scored with the head.
- Free Kick – Direct free-kick goal.
- Penalty – Goal scored from the penalty spot.
- Own Goal – A player accidentally scores against his own team.
- Shot from Outside the Box – Goal scored from outside the 18-yard area.
- Shot from Inside the Box – Goal scored from within the penalty area (not a penalty).
Example with Teams
Let’s take a real matchup example:
Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Header: If Virgil van Dijk scores from a corner with his head, bets on Header win.
- Penalty: If Mohamed Salah scores from the penalty spot, bets on Penalty win.
- Free Kick: If Bruno Fernandes curls in a direct free kick, bets on Free Kick win.
- Own Goal: If Harry Maguire accidentally scores in his own net, bets on Own Goal win.
- Outside the Box: If Trent Alexander-Arnold smashes a long shot from 25 yards, bets on Outside the Box win.
So you’re predicting the style of the goal, not the exact scorer.
Betting Tips & Strategy
- Study Player Profiles
- If a team has tall centre-backs (like Van Dijk, Haaland), they’re more likely to score headers from corners.
- If a team has a free-kick specialist (Messi, James Ward-Prowse), a Free Kick goal becomes more likely.
- Check Team Stats
- Look at stats: goals from set pieces, penalties won, shots outside the box.
- Example: Manchester City often scores from outside the box because they dominate possession and take long shots.
- Referee Profile
- Some referees award penalties more often than others. If a penalty-prone referee is officiating, a “Penalty Goal” bet has higher value.
- Consider Match Style
- Defensive teams (like Burnley in past seasons) concede lots of set-piece goals → good for Header bets.
- Open, attacking matches → more chances for Outside the Box or Inside the Box goals.
- Value in Own Goal Market
- Rare, but odds are usually very high (10.0+). They often occur in high-pressure games where defenders make mistakes.
Example Bet Scenario
Chelsea vs Arsenal
- You bet “First Goal: Header” at odds 6.00.
- In the 30th minute, Thiago Silva scores from a Mason Mount corner with his head.
- Your bet wins.
If instead Jorginho scores a penalty, your bet loses, but those who picked Penalty Goal win.
In short, “How Goal Will Be Scored” betting is about predicting the method of scoring, and it’s great for bettors who study player styles, team tactics, and match situations.
Would you like me to also explain the difference between betting on “How the First Goal Will Be Scored” vs “Any Goal Method” in a match?