What Does “Home Team Over/Under (incl. Overtime)” Mean?
- This is a team-specific total points market.
- You’re betting on whether the home team’s total points (including overtime if it occurs) will go over or under a bookmaker’s set line.
- Unlike regular Over/Under (which combines both teams’ points), here you only focus on the home team’s scoring output.
Example:
- The line is set at Home Team Over/Under 105.5 points.
- Over 105.5 → bet wins if the home team scores 106+ points (incl. OT).
- Under 105.5 → bet wins if the home team scores 105 or fewer (incl. OT).
Example with a Team: Golden State Warriors (NBA)
Let’s say the Warriors are playing at home vs. Sacramento Kings.
- Bookmaker sets the line: Warriors Over/Under 116.5 points (incl. OT).
Step 1: Check Home Offensive Stats
- Warriors at home average: 118.2 points per game.
- They shoot better at Chase Center (3-point %, FG%, pace of play).
Step 2: Check Opponent’s Defense
- Kings allow 114.7 points per game on the road.
- They struggle defending the perimeter (important vs. Warriors’ shooters).
Step 3: Game Context
- Warriors are healthy, Curry is playing.
- Both teams play at a fast pace.
- This suggests a high-scoring home game.
In this spot, Warriors Over 116.5 points looks like value.
Key Factors to Consider Before Betting
- Home Scoring Average
- Compare home team’s home PPG vs. league average.
- Some teams perform much better at home due to crowd energy.
- Opponent’s Defense (Away Stats)
- Check points allowed on the road.
- Look at defensive rating, pace, and matchups.
- Pace of Play
- Fast-paced teams → more possessions → more scoring chances.
- Injuries / Rest
- Missing a key scorer = Under more likely.
- Missing a key defender on the opponent = Over more likely.
- Overtime Factor
- Since OT counts, close competitive games give more chance for the Over.
- Blowouts may limit scoring if starters get benched early.
Betting Tips
- Target High-Tempo Teams at Home
- Example: Indiana Pacers or Golden State Warriors → strong “Over” candidates at home.
- Fade Teams Against Elite Defenses
- Example: Betting the home Over vs. Boston Celtics’ defense is risky.
- Look at Head-to-Head Trends
- If a matchup consistently produces high-scoring games, lean “Over”.
- Live Betting Edge
- If the home team starts hot but the line doesn’t adjust enough, you can still grab the Over.
- Conversely, if they struggle early, an in-game Under might offer better value.
- Beware of Blowouts
- In expected one-sided games, the home team may slow down late, making the Under likelier.
Example Bet Slip:
- Game: Warriors vs. Kings
- Market: Warriors Team Total Over/Under 116.5 (incl. OT)
- Pick: Over 116.5
- Rationale: Warriors average 118.2 PPG at home, Kings allow 114.7 away, both teams play fast → conditions favor the Over.
Would you like me to also break this down for a European basketball example (like EuroLeague), since the scoring and pace are a bit different from the NBA?