What Does “Player Shots on Target Outside the Box” Mean?
This is a player prop market where you bet on whether a specific player will have a certain number of shots on target from outside the penalty area (18-yard box) during a match.
- Shot on target = any attempt that forces the goalkeeper to make a save, hits the post/crossbar while heading into goal, or results in a goal.
- Outside the box = the shot must be taken from beyond the penalty area line.
You’ll usually see markets like:
- Player to have 1+ shot on target outside the box
- Player to have 2+ shots on target outside the box
Example with a Club Team
Let’s use Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City) as an example:
- Fixture: Manchester City vs. Tottenham
- Market: Kevin De Bruyne to have 1+ shot on target outside the box
- Why?
- De Bruyne is known for long-range efforts.
- Tottenham might sit deep, forcing City players to try shots from distance.
- De Bruyne averages 1.2 long shots per game, with many testing the goalkeeper.
If De Bruyne takes a free-kick outside the area that goes on target, the bet wins.
Another case: Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
- Market: Bruno Fernandes 2+ shots on target outside the box vs. Wolves
- He takes long-range shots and direct free-kicks, giving him multiple chances to hit the target from distance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Player Profile
- Midfielders & playmakers (De Bruyne, Bruno Fernandes, James Ward-Prowse) are good picks.
- Forwards who like to shoot from distance (Mo Salah, Son Heung-min) also fit.
- Team Tactics
- If a team faces a low defensive block, midfielders get more long-shot opportunities.
- Teams with set-piece specialists often generate outside-the-box shots on target from free-kicks.
- Opponent Weakness
- Teams that concede possession and defend deep force attackers into long-range attempts.
- Match Context
- In big games where space is tight, players try more long shots.
- If a team is losing, they attempt speculative shots from distance.
Example Betting Scenario
- Match: Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
- Market: Mohamed Salah to have 1+ shot on target outside the box
- Salah cuts in from the right, often shooting from 20+ yards. Against defensive teams, this happens more often.
If Salah takes a curling effort from outside the box and the keeper saves it, bet wins .
Betting Tips
- Look at stats – Check player averages for shots outside the box and shots on target. Websites like WhoScored or FBref help.
- Pick set-piece takers – Free-kick specialists are very valuable in this market.
- Target defensive teams – When opponents sit deep, long shots become the main chance creation.
- Consider competition – In Champions League knockouts or derbies, players take more risks with distance shooting.
- Bet low stakes – Long-range shots on target are harder to land than general shots on target, so it’s riskier.
Would you like me to also show you a list of the top 5 current players most profitable for this market (long-shot specialists) so you know who to watch out for in betting?