Alright — let’s break down “5+ Excluded Number of Goals” in soccer betting step-by-step, because the wording can be a little tricky and is easy to misunderstand if you read it quickly.
Meaning
The “Excluded Number of Goals” market is a type of Total Goals bet where one specific number of total goals is excluded from your wager.
If that exact number of goals is scored in the match, your bet is voided (stake returned).
When you see “5+ Excluded”, it means:
- All total goals bets except exactly 5 goals are active for your chosen side.
- If the match ends with exactly 5 goals total, your bet is refunded (not a win, not a loss).
How It Works
Let’s say the market is:
Over 5+ Excluded
This means:
- You win if total goals are 6 or more.
- You lose if total goals are 4 or fewer.
- If exactly 5 goals, your stake is refunded.
If the market is:
Under 5+ Excluded
This means:
- You win if total goals are 4 or fewer.
- You lose if total goals are 6 or more.
- If exactly 5 goals, your stake is refunded.
Examples
Example 1 — Over 5+ Excluded
Match: Barcelona 4 – 2 Real Madrid → Total goals = 6
You win (because 6 > 5).
Match: Liverpool 3 – 2 Chelsea → Total goals = 5
Stake refunded (because exactly 5 goals).
Match: Man City 2 – 2 Arsenal → Total goals = 4
You lose (because 4 < 5).
Example 2 — Under 5+ Excluded
Match: AC Milan 3 – 1 Inter → Total goals = 4
You win (because 4 < 5).
Match: Bayern 4 – 1 Dortmund → Total goals = 5
Stake refunded (exactly 5 goals).
Match: PSG 5 – 2 Marseille → Total goals = 7
You lose (because 7 > 5).
Why Bettors Like This Market
- Reduces risk in matches where one specific goal total seems most likely.
- Useful when you expect either high or low scoring but think exactly 5 goals could happen.
Betting Tips
- Check Team Goal Patterns
- If two attacking teams often produce 5-goal thrillers, this market can protect you from that exact number.
- Good for Big Favorites
- When a dominant team might score 4–6 goals alone, betting Over 5+ Excluded gives you a refund safety net if they hit exactly 5.
- Avoid in Balanced Matches
- If both teams are evenly matched, goal totals often hover around 2–4, so the refund scenario becomes rare.
- Use with Live Betting
- If early goals are scored quickly, odds shift fast. You can use “Excluded Number” live to protect against exact score totals.
If you want, I can make you a quick visual table showing all possible goal totals and what happens with Over and Under 5+ Excluded — so you can see wins, losses, and refunds at a glance. That will make it instantly clear.